大越期货豆粕早报-20250620

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Soybean Meal: The US soybean market is in a technical consolidation phase due to a holiday and short - term calm in news. It is waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas. In China, soybean meal has rebounded, but the increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices limit the upside. It is expected to trade in a range of 3040 - 3100 for M2509. The overall outlook is neutral, with some factors like low inventory being positive and high import volume being negative [8]. - For Soybeans: The US soybean market situation is similar to that of soybean meal. In China, soybeans have rebounded from a low. The price is affected by the US soybean trend, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans, and the expected increase in imported soybeans. It is expected to trade in a range of 4200 - 4300 for A2509. The overall outlook is neutral, with factors such as cost support being positive and high import and domestic production expectations being negative [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - The short - term agreement in China - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans, but good planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pull - back in the US market. It is expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark, waiting for future developments [12]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory has recovered from a low, while the soybean meal inventory remains low. The soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to an oscillatory pattern, showing a strong - reality and weak - expectation situation [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but tight supply supports the post - holiday price. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, soybean meal has entered a weakly oscillatory pattern [12]. - The low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills and the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas support the short - term price. However, it is still waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish: The total volume of imported soybeans in China is expected to reach a high in June, and the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over with a continuous high - yield expectation [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish: Cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish: The continuous high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From June 10 - 19, 2025, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2937 - 2999 yuan/ton, and the trading volume also fluctuated. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal increased from 2520 to 2620 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small [15]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From June 11 - 19, 2025, the futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed an overall upward - fluctuating trend, while the spot prices also changed accordingly [17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts: From June 6 - 19, 2025, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal generally decreased [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years [30][31]. - Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in Different Regions: The planting and growth progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2025 are presented, including sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and harvesting rates [32][33][37] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content 3.6 Additional Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has rebounded month - on - month but declined year - on - year [41]. - The soybean inventory in oil mills continues to rise, while the soybean meal inventory remains low [43]. - The unexecuted contracts in oil mills continue to rise, indicating an increase in long - term procurement demand [45]. - The soybean crushing volume in oil mills remains high, but the soybean meal output in April decreased year - on - year [46]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has increased slightly, and the import profit on the futures market has narrowed slightly [47]. - The inventory of live pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [49]. - The prices of live pigs and piglets have decreased slightly [51]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [53]. - The domestic pig - farming profit has fallen to a relatively low level [55].