甲醇日报-20250620

Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Daily Report - Date: June 20, 2025 - Industry: Methanol Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of methanol remains high as domestic production has been increasing for four consecutive weeks, while the operating rates of most downstream products have declined this week. However, the methanol price is still rising due to the expected significant decrease in methanol imports caused by the Iran geopolitical conflict. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but technical adjustments should be noted [5]. - From a technical perspective, in the hourly cycle, the MACD fast and slow lines of the methanol weighted contract are running above the zero - axis with repeated divergences, and the RSI has entered the overbought area three times, indicating a need for short - term stagnation and callback. In the daily cycle, the MACD fast and slow lines are above the zero - axis, the red column is continuously lengthening, the price has reached a new high, and the RSI has been in a钝化 stage after entering the overbought area. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but technical adjustments should be noted [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The methanol weighted contract increased in position and price today. The weighted contract added 20,499 lots, and the 09 main contract added 17,514 lots. It showed a high - opening and wide - range oscillation trend, closing with a small - bodied positive line with long upper and lower shadows, rising 0.91% overall. The average spot transaction price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,770 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the domestic methanol production was 1,997,846 tons, an increase of 15,190 tons from the previous week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 88.65%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. The capacity utilization rates of some main downstream products of methanol this week are as follows: olefins 88.97% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%), formaldehyde 50.39% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.22%), acetic acid 88.33% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.327%), MTBE 63.71% (a month - on - month increase of 4.01%) [5]. - A table shows the futures market quotations of different contracts, including opening price, closing price, highest price, lowest price, increase or decrease, trading volume, open interest, change in open interest, and speculation degree [7]. 3.2 Industry News - The 3 - million - ton/year olefin project of Inner Mongolia Baofeng Coal - based New Materials Co., Ltd., the world's largest single - plant coal - to - olefin project with a total investment of 48.4 billion yuan, was put into operation. It uses coal to produce polyethylene and polypropylene, with an annual output of 3 million tons of polyolefins, including 1.5 million tons of polyethylene and 1.5 million tons of polypropylene [13]. 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the basis of the main contract, the price difference between production and sales areas, the futures price and the number of warehouse receipts, the price difference between MA09 and MA01, the profits of three methanol production processes, and the overseas market price of methanol, but specific data in the charts are not described in detail [20][21][22]