建信期货棉花日报-20250620

Industry - The industry being reported on is cotton [1] Report Date - The report was dated June 20, 2025 [2] Researchers - The researchers include Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating and adjusting. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 is 14,891 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market is weak, with spinning mills selling at discounted prices, and downstream orders are difficult to improve. The cotton fabric market is also sluggish, with large fabric mills having less-than-expected orders and accumulating inventory [7] - The Fed has maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, causing a sharp decline in overnight ICE cotton futures. The US cotton planting progress is 85% (compared to 89% last year), and the good-to-excellent rate is 48% (compared to 54% last year). The June USDA monthly supply and demand report increased US cotton exports in the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons and reduced the ending inventory to 960,000 tons. In the domestic market, with a stable or slightly increasing planting area, the new cotton output is expected to be stable or slightly increase. There is a risk of high-temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang this week. In May, yarn production increased by 3% year-on-year, and cloth production decreased by 3.3% year-on-year. The downstream industry is currently weak, with finished product inventory gradually accumulating and the operating rate decreasing again. In the short term, the fundamental driving force is limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating in a narrow range. Pay attention to macro changes [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market Review: Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating and adjusting. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 is 14,891 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market is weak, with spinning mills selling at discounted prices, and downstream orders are difficult to improve. The cotton fabric market is also sluggish, with large fabric mills having less-than-expected orders and accumulating inventory. It is expected that autumn orders will start later than usual [7] - Macro and Market Analysis: The Fed has maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, causing a sharp decline in overnight ICE cotton futures. The US cotton planting progress is 85% (compared to 89% last year), and the good-to-excellent rate is 48% (compared to 54% last year). The June USDA monthly supply and demand report increased US cotton exports in the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons and reduced the ending inventory to 960,000 tons. In the domestic market, with a stable or slightly increasing planting area, the new cotton output is expected to be stable or slightly increase. There is a risk of high-temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang this week. In May, yarn production increased by 3% year-on-year, and cloth production decreased by 3.3% year-on-year. The downstream industry is currently weak, with finished product inventory gradually accumulating and the operating rate decreasing again. In the short term, the fundamental driving force is limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating in a narrow range. Pay attention to macro changes [8] 2. Industry News - In May, China's yarn production was 1.951 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%; cloth production was 2.67 billion meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%; and chemical fiber production was 7.349 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. From January to May, cumulative yarn production was 9.368 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%; cumulative cloth production was 12.63 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%; and cumulative chemical fiber production was 35.037 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, etc. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][17][26]