建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250620

Group 1: General Information - The report is a daily report on the polyolefin industry dated June 20, 2025 [1][2] - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for polyolefins, crude oil and fuel oil, PTA, MEG, urea, industrial silicon, pulp, and glass - soda ash [4] Group 2: Futures Market Quotes - For plastic 2601, the opening price was 7370 yuan/ton, closing at 7399 yuan/ton, with a high of 7417 yuan/ton, a low of 7353 yuan/ton, a rise of 62 yuan/ton (0.85% increase), a position of 106,997 lots, and a position change of - 1395 lots [5] - For plastic 2605, the opening price was 7368 yuan/ton, closing at 7375 yuan/ton, with a high of 7400 yuan/ton, a low of 7342 yuan/ton, a rise of 48 yuan/ton (0.66% increase), a position of 801 lots, and a position change of 6 lots [5] - For plastic 2509, the opening price was 7425 yuan/ton, closing at 7462 yuan/ton, with a high of 7479 yuan/ton, a low of 7397 yuan/ton, a rise of 71 yuan/ton (0.96% increase), a position of 478,375 lots, and a position change of 2116 lots [5] - For PP2601, the opening price was 7149 yuan/ton, closing at 7221 yuan/ton, with a high of 7233 yuan/ton, a low of 7149 yuan/ton, a rise of 101 yuan/ton (1.42% increase), a position of 91,599 lots, and a position change of 3106 lots [5] - For PP2605, the opening price was 7159 yuan/ton, closing at 7208 yuan/ton, with a high of 7214 yuan/ton, a low of 7159 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton (1.41% increase), a position of 987 lots, and a position change of - 1 lot [5] - For PP2509, the opening price was 7215 yuan/ton, closing at 7274 yuan/ton, with a high of 7279 yuan/ton, a low of 7213 yuan/ton, a rise of 85 yuan/ton (1.18% increase), a position of 487,507 lots, and a position change of 10,454 lots [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - L2509 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 7462 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan/ton (0.96%), with a trading volume of 430,000 lots and an increase in positions by 2137 to 478,396 lots. PP's main contract closed at 7274 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan (1.18% increase), with an increase in positions by 10,500 lots to 487,500 lots [6] - The futures market maintained high - level fluctuations, but the market trading atmosphere was average. Traders raised prices following the market, while downstream buyers were resistant to high - priced goods and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [6] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East showed signs of escalation, and risk - aversion sentiment supported oil prices. The shutdown of Iranian methanol plants pushed up MA. Polyolefins were in a stage of strong cost and weak supply - demand game. In the short term, cost logic supported the upward movement of polyolefin prices, but downstream demand was difficult to follow up, and the basis of plastic and PP continued to weaken [6] Group 4: Industry News - On June 19, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 760,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons (3.18% decline) from the previous working day, the same as the inventory level in the same period last year [7] - The PE market prices rose steadily. In North China, some linear PE prices increased by 20 - 80 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 250 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices increased by 10 - 150 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 150 yuan/ton, some low - pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some linear PE prices increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. In South China, some linear and low - pressure PE prices increased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and some high - pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton [7] - The PP market still showed an upward trend. The high - level fluctuation of futures continued to boost the spot market atmosphere. Some petrochemical plants raised their prices, and cost support remained. Traders' quotation centers moved up, but downstream buyers were cautious, with low willingness to enter the market. The actual transaction volume was limited, and transactions were mainly at the lower negotiated prices [7] - The mainstream prices of North China PP drawstring in the morning were 7160 - 7270 yuan/ton, 7240 - 7330 yuan/ton in East China, and 7170 - 7330 yuan/ton in South China [7] Group 5: Data Overview - The report includes data on futures market quotes, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, L and PP basis, and two - oil inventories and their year - on - year changes, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [5][11][15][18]