大越期货沥青期货早报-20250620

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in June 2025 is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate this week is 32.8979%, up 0.599 percentage points month - on - month. The overall supply pressure is high, but it may decrease next week [7]. - The demand side indicates that the overall demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt have low or flat开工率, while the modified asphalt开工率 is higher than the historical average, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 is down [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 602.45 yuan/ton, down 9.00% month - on - month, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 711.6571 yuan/ton, up 5.92% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss is reduced, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. Crude oil is strengthening, which is expected to support the price in the short term [8]. - The expected trend of the asphalt market is that the futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating in the range of 3707 - 3769 [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: Supply pressure is high, and demand recovery is less than expected. The overall situation is bearish [7]. - Cost: Crude oil is strengthening, and the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short term [8]. - Basis: On June 19th, the Shandong spot price was 3800 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis was 62 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [10]. - Inventory: The social inventory is increasing, the factory inventory is decreasing, and the port diluted asphalt inventory is decreasing significantly. The overall situation is bullish [10]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the 09 - contract futures price closes above the MA20, which is bullish [10]. - Main Positions: The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [10]. - Expected Trend: The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating in the range of 3707 - 3769 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend The report provides the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [19][20]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main - Contract Spread: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which is useful for spread trading analysis [24][25]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and WTI oil from 2020 to 2025 are shown, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [27][28]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are provided, which is important for understanding the profitability of asphalt production [30][32]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio: The historical price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are given, which can assist in cross - commodity trading decisions [34][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends The historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2025 are presented, helping to understand the regional differences in the asphalt spot market [37][38]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: The historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which is important for evaluating the profitability of asphalt production [40][41]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread: The historical profit - spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are provided, which can help refineries make production decisions [43][45]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: The historical weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which reflects the market supply situation [46][47]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 are shown, which is related to the supply of raw materials [48][49]. - Production Volume: The historical weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are provided, which is crucial for understanding the overall supply situation [51][52]. - Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production: The historical price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly production volume trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are given, which are related to the cost and supply of asphalt raw materials [55][57]. - Refinery Asphalt Production: The historical production volume trends of refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the production capacity of refineries [58][60]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The historical weekly capacity utilization rate trends of asphalt from 2023 to 2025 are shown, which reflects the production enthusiasm of refineries [61][62]. - Maintenance Loss Estimate: The historical trends of estimated maintenance losses from 2018 to 2025 are provided, which is related to the supply fluctuation caused by refinery maintenance [64][65]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which is related to the market's willingness to hold inventory [67][68]. - Social and Factory Inventories: The historical trends of social and factory inventories from 2022 to 2025 are shown, which reflects the inventory distribution in the market [72][73]. - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: The historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 are provided, which helps to understand the inventory management of factories [75][76]. - Import - Export Analysis: - Export and Import Trends: The historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which is related to the international market situation [78][79]. - South Korean Asphalt Import Spread: The historical spread trends of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is important for import - related trading [81][82]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: The historical production volume trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which is related to the demand for asphalt in the petroleum coke production process [84][85]. - Apparent Consumption: The historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are provided, which reflects the overall market demand [87][88]. - Downstream Demand: - Infrastructure - Related Demand: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [90][92]. - Mechanical Equipment Demand: The historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales volume trends of excavators and road rollers from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which reflect the demand for asphalt in construction projects [94][95]. - Asphalt开工率: - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率: The historical开工率 trends of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which reflects the demand for heavy - traffic asphalt [99][100]. - Asphalt开工率 by Use: The historical开工率 trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the demand for different types of asphalt [102][103]. - Downstream开工率: The historical开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which reflects the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [105][106]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025 is provided, including production, import, export, inventory, and demand data, which helps to comprehensively understand the market supply - demand situation [110][111].