油脂油料早报-20250620

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The USDA predicts the total production cost of US soybeans in 2025 to be $639.15 per acre and $650.34 per acre in 2026 [1]. - Due to the sudden surge in the Malaysian benchmark palm oil price, Indian refineries cancelled 65,000 tons of crude palm oil (CPO) orders scheduled for delivery from July - September. The price of Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures rose by over 6% in the past three days, and Indian refineries cancelled orders to hedge against price - decline risks by locking in profits [1]. - Despite the order cancellations, Indian palm oil imports are expected to rebound in the next few months as its recent imports have been far below the average, leading to a decline in inventory [1]. 3) Summaries by Related Contents US Soybean Production Cost - The predicted total production cost of US soybeans in 2025 is $639.15 per acre, and in 2026 it is $650.34 per acre [1]. Indian Palm Oil Orders - Four traders said Indian refineries cancelled 65,000 tons of CPO orders for July - September delivery due to the price surge. The price of Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures rose over 6% in the past three days. Indian refineries cancelled orders to lock in profits and hedge against price - decline risks [1]. - Less than a month ago, Indian buyers purchased CPO at about $1,000 - $1,030 per ton. This week, palm oil futures followed the rise of CBOT soybean oil futures after the US proposed to increase biofuel blending. Indian refineries cancelled contracts at $1,050 - $1,065 per ton, making a profit of over $30 per ton [1]. - The price of CPO delivered to India in July is about $1,070 per ton, compared to $1,020 - $1,030 per ton a month ago [1]. Indian Palm Oil Imports - Indian palm oil imports are expected to rebound in the next few months as its recent imports have been far below the average, leading to a decline in inventory. Indian palm oil imports in July reached a six - month high due to low inventory and prices lower than those of competing soybean oil and sunflower oil [1]. Imported Soybean Crushing Profit, Oil Import Profit, and Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal in Jiangsu | Rapeseed Meal in Guangdong | Soybean Oil in Jiangsu | Palm Oil in Guangzhou | Rapeseed Oil in Jiangsu | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/06/13 | 2850 | 2550 | 8080 | 8460 | 9530 | | 2025/06/16 | 2870 | 2540 | 8230 | 8720 | 9690 | | 2025/06/17 | 2900 | 2550 | 8240 | 8710 | 9780 | | 2025/06/18 | 2900 | 2560 | 8300 | 8780 | 9910 | | 2025/06/19 | 2910 | 2560 | 8380 | - | 9900 | [1][6]