Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Aromatics and Rubber Morning Report [1][2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team - Date: June 20, 2025 Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Report Core Views - PTA: Near - term TA开工 continues to rise, new devices stably increase loads, polyester开工 slightly declines, inventory accumulates, basis remains strong, and spot processing fees weaken. PX domestic开工 declines month - on - month, overseas continues to rise, PXN and structure continue to weaken. Bottleneck in bottle chips may drag down polyester load further. TA is entering the inventory accumulation stage, and opportunities to shrink processing fees on rallies should be noted [2]. - MEG: Near - term maintenance resumes,开工 rises significantly, port inventory slightly accumulates with stable arrivals, downstream stocking levels decline, basis weakens significantly, and oil - based benefits are compressed. The fastest port destocking stage is over, transitioning to a balanced and slightly accumulative stage. It is expected to be range - bound, and changes in Iranian imports should be noted [3]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: Near - term device operation is stable,开工 remains at 92.1%, sales improve month - on - month, and inventory decreases month - on - month. On the demand side,开工 of polyester yarn declines, raw material stocking increases, finished product inventory accumulates month - on - month, and benefits decline month - on - month. Supply reduction of staple fiber is limited, and benefits may recover due to the decline in polyester开工 caused by bottle chip production cuts. Downstream has no obvious improvement, and processing fees are expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to whether there are further production cuts in the industry [3]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber: National explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level but does not show seasonal destocking. Thai cup rubber prices rebound due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. - Styrene: No overall view is summarized in the report, only data changes are presented. Group 4: Data Summary by Product PTA | Date | Crude Oil | Naphtha | PX CFR | PTA Domestic Spot | Naphtha Cracking Spread | PTA Processing Spread | PTA Balance Load | PTA Negative Load | Warehouse Receipts + Effective Forecast | TA Basis | Sales | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/06/13 | 74.2 | 621 | 854 | 5010 | 6975 | 76.39 | 233.0 | 343 | 67 | 85.6 | 83.0 | | 2025/06/16 | 73.2 | 624 | 862 | 5005 | 7030 | 87.35 | 238.0 | 297 | 118 | 85.6 | 83.0 | | 2025/06/17 | 76.5 | 626 | 880 | 5020 | 7030 | 65.25 | 254.0 | 209 | 98 | 85.6 | 83.0 | | 2025/06/18 | 76.7 | 633 | 888 | 5190 | 7130 | 70.92 | 255.0 | 333 | 25 | 85.6 | 83.0 | | 2025/06/19 | 78.9 | 643 | 904 | 5190 | 7120 | 64.66 | 261.0 | 247 | - 3 | 85.6 | 83.0 | | Change | 2.2 | 10 | 16 | 0 | - 10.00 | - 6.26 | 6.0 | - 86 | - 28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | [2] MEG | Date | Northeast Asia Ethylene | MEG FOB Price | MEG Domestic Price | MEG East China Price | MEG Forward Price | MEG Coal - based Profit | MEG Domestic Cash Flow (Ethylene) | MEG Total Load | Coal - based MEG Load | MEG Port Inventory | Non - coal - based Load | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/06/13 | 790 | 518 | 4400 | 4415 | 4395 | 414 | - 515 | 66.6 | 68.4 | 61.6 | 60 | | 2025/06/16 | 800 | 522 | 4426 | 4440 | 4423 | 414 | - 540 | 66.6 | 68.4 | 61.6 | 60 | | 2025/06/17 | 820 | 522 | 4446 | 4460 | 4445 | 414 | - 616 | 66.6 | 68.4 | 61.6 | 60 | | 2025/06/18 | 830 | 532 | 4529 | 4545 | 4530 | 414 | - 584 | 66.6 | 68.4 | 61.6 | 60 | | 2025/06/19 | 830 | 534 | 4585 | 4602 | 4588 | 414 | - 526 | 66.6 | 68.4 | 61.6 | 60 | | Change | 0 | 2 | 56 | 57 | 58.00 | 0.00 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [3] Polyester Staple Fiber | Date | 1.4D Cotton - type | Low - melting Point Staple Fiber | Primary Hollow | Imitation Large - diameter Chemical Fiber | Pure Polyester Yarn | Polyester - Cotton Yarn | Primary Staple Fiber Load | Recycled Cotton - type Load | Polyester Yarn Operation | Staple Fiber Profit | Pure Polyester Yarn Profit | Cotton - Polyester Staple | Viscose - Polyester Staple | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/06/13 | 6665 | 7355 | 7150 | 5850 | 12100 | 16500 | 92 | 49 | 67 | - 109 | - 15 | 7990 | 6085 | | 2025/06/16 | 6690 | 7355 | 7150 | 5850 | 12100 | 16500 | 92 | 49 | 67 | - 89 | 10 | 8005 | 6070 | | 2025/06/17 | 6710 | 7355 | 7150 | 5850 | 12100 | 16500 | 92 | 49 | 67 | - 88 | - 10 | 7980 | 6050 | | 2025/06/18 | 6835 | 7585 | 7280 | 5850 | 12100 | 16300 | 92 | 49 | 67 | - 136 | - 85 | 7895 | 5925 | | 2025/06/19 | 6890 | 7585 | 7280 | 5850 | 12100 | 16300 | 92 | 49 | 67 | - 100 | - 140 | 7800 | 5870 | | Daily Change | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | - 55 | - 95 | - 55 | [3] Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber | Date | US Dollar Thai Standard Spot | US Dollar Thai Mixed Spot | RMB Mixed Rubber | Shanghai Whole Milk | Shanghai 3L | Thai Latex | Thai Cup Rubber | Yunnan Latex | Hainan Latex | Butadiene Rubber | RU Main Contract | NR Main Contract | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/06/13 | 1685 | 1690 | 13720 | 13475 | 14950 | 56.8 | 47.1 | 13100 | 15000 | 11500 | 13875 | 12105 | | 2025/06/16 | 1695 | 1695 | 13750 | 13510 | 14900 | 56.8 | 47.5 | 13000 | 15000 | 11600 | 13910 | 12160 | | 2025/06/17 | 1695 | 1695 | 13740 | 13470 | 14950 | 57.0 | 47.2 | 13000 | 15100 | 11600 | 13870 | 12140 | | 2025/06/18 | 1715 | 1710 | 13850 | 13610 | 14900 | 57.5 | 47.7 | 13200 | 15100 | 11750 | 14010 | 12330 | | 2025/06/19 | 1715 | 1710 | 13860 | 13630 | 14800 | 57.8 | 48.3 | 13200 | 15400 | 11750 | 14030 | 12280 | | Daily Change | 0 | 0 | 10 | 20 | - 100 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 300 | 0 | 20 | - 50 | | Weekly Change | 45 | 45 | 320 | 445 | 50 | 1 | 2 | 100 | 400 | 350 | 445 | 350 | [3] Styrene | Date | Ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) | Pure Benzene (CFR China) | Pure Benzene (East China) | Hydrogenated Benzene (Shandong) | Styrene (CFR China) | Styrene (Jiangsu) | Styrene (South China) | EPS (East China General Material) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/06/13 | 790 | 782 | 6335 | 6350 | 945 | 8035 | 8140 | 8850 | | 2025/06/16 | 800 | 781 | 6315 | 6330 | 940 | 7920 | 8075 | 8850 | | 2025/06/17 | 810 | 775 | 6230 | 6235 | 925 | 7805 | 7950 | 8850 | | 2025/06/18 | 820 | 791 | 6360 | 6350 | 950 | 8010 | 8050 | 8850 | | 2025/06/19 | 820 | 791 | 6410 | 6400 | 955 | 8100 | 8100 | 8950 | | Daily Change | 0 | 0 | 50 | 50 | 5 | 90 | 50 | 100 | [3]
芳烃橡胶早报-20250620
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-06-20 02:20