大越期货燃料油早报-20250620

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report indicates that the low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are still supported due to the shortage of medium - sulfur blending components despite a slight increase in the arrival of arbitrage vessels from the West. The high - sulfur fuel oil downstream marine fuel demand remains strong and is also supported by the peak summer power generation season. With the intensification of the Israel - Iran conflict, the shipping market's unease has increased, and the increased demand for refueling of detouring vessels may boost Singapore's marine fuel sales in the short term. Although the short - term geopolitical sentiment has eased to some extent, it remains at a high level. The fuel oil is expected to continue to operate at a high level in the short term. The FU2509 is expected to operate in the 3380 - 3450 range, and the LU2508 in the 4000 - 4050 range [3]. 3. Summary according to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is tight, and high - sulfur fuel oil demand is strong. The conflict affects shipping and may increase fuel sales. Overall, it is a bullish factor [3]. - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have positive basis, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 220,000 barrels to 22.899 million barrels in the week of June 18, which is bullish [3]. - Market Chart: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [3]. - Main Position: High - sulfur main position has more long positions and an increase in longs, which is bullish; low - sulfur main position has more short positions and an increase in shorts, which is bearish [3]. - Expectation: The short - term geopolitical sentiment has eased but remains high. The detour demand supports the strength of fuel oil. The FU2509 is expected to operate in the 3380 - 3450 range, and the LU2508 in the 4000 - 4050 range [3]. 3.2 Long - Short Focus - Bullish Factors: The deterioration of the Middle East situation and the expected increase in summer power generation demand [4]. - Bearish Factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4]. - Market Driver: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The current price of the FU main contract is 3337, up 19 or 0.57% from the previous value; the LU main contract is 3943, up 51 or 1.31%. The FU basis decreased by 31 to 219, a decrease of 12.54%; the LU basis decreased by 11 to 92, a decrease of 10.76% [5]. - Spot Market: The current price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil is 550, up 5 or 0.92%; Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil is 556, up 4 or 0.72%. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 486.69, up 0.5 or 0.10%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 556.5, up 9 or 1.64%. Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil is 463.61, up 0.87 or 0.19%; Singapore diesel is 685.42, up 20.88 or 3.14% [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data Singapore's fuel oil inventory data from April 9 to June 18 shows fluctuations. In the week of June 18, the inventory was 22.899 million barrels, a decrease of 220,000 barrels [8]. 3.5 Spread Data The report provides a chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread from September 7, 2021, to June 7, 2025, but no specific numerical analysis of the spread is given [13].