原油成品油早报-20250620

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, oil prices rose significantly, with the largest single - day increase in years on Friday and an enlarged intraday amplitude. The geopolitical risk has soared due to the conflict between Israel and Iran. The risk of oil price increase remains high as Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories are flat, U.S. commercial inventories continue to decline, and refined oil products are accumulating. The profits of refineries around the world have declined this week, while the operating rate of domestic main refineries has increased significantly. The absolute price of crude oil is expected to fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Oil Price Data - From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the price of BRENT crude oil increased from $74.23 to $78.85, a change of $2.15. The price of SC increased from 529.90 to 570.90, a change of 18.20. Other related oil - related product prices also showed certain fluctuations [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Citi estimates that a 1.1 million - barrel - per - day disruption of Iranian oil supply means the Brent crude price should be between $75 and $78 per barrel. If the oil supply disruption reaches 3 million barrels per day, the oil price will rise to $90. JPMorgan predicts that in the most extreme case of a wider - area conflict including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price may soar to $120 - $130 per barrel. Trump postponed the decision on striking Iran, which alleviated the concern of immediate escalation of the situation, and the oil price remained stable [3][4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 13, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 1.075 million barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production increased by 0.3 million barrels to 13.431 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 11.473 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 2.65%. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 0.23 million barrels to 402.3 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. In China, the operating rate of main refineries increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel increased, and the sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week [5]. 3.4 Weekly View - The recent rise in oil prices is mainly due to geopolitical risks. The conflict between Israel and Iran is out of the negotiation framework and beyond market expectations. The threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz is the biggest factor affecting oil prices. Fundamentally, the support of fundamentals for oil prices is weaker than during the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022. The absolute price of oil is expected to fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [5].