甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250620

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High imports are materializing, and inventory accumulation has begun. The market is undervalued, waiting for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. It's in a phase of negative factors materializing. Uncertainty exists in the unilateral direction due to macro instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US. Considering the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is favored [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profits are around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, while LD is weakening. In June, maintenance is decreasing, and domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new device commissioning in 2025 [7]. - PP (Polypropylene): Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and imports have a profit of around - 500. Exports are performing well this year. PDH profit is around - 1000, and the propylene market is oscillating. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which could be alleviated by continuous export growth or more PDH device maintenance [7]. - PVC: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. Downstream开工 is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new capacity commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, real - estate sales, terminal orders, and开工 in June [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the动力煤 futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2480 to 2765, and the South China spot price rose from 2450 to 2680. The daily change on June 19 showed an increase of 65 in Jiangsu and South China spot prices [2]. - View: High imports are realized, inventory is accumulating, and the market is in a phase of negative factors materializing. With low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price rose from 790 to 820. The North China LL price increased from 7210 to 7400, and the East China LL price went up from 7300 to 7500 [7]. - View: Overall inventory is neutral, import profits are stable, and attention should be paid to production conversion and new device commissioning [7]. PP (Polypropylene) - Price Data: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the Shandong propylene price increased from 6410 to 6460. The East China PP price rose from 7090 to 7245 [7]. - View: Inventories are decreasing, and the market is under moderate to excessive pressure, which could be alleviated by certain factors [7]. PVC - Price Data: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2350, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 872 to 842 [10][11]. - View: The basis has strengthened, inventories are decreasing, and attention should be paid to multiple factors in June [11].