工业硅多晶硅市场周报：双硅价格大幅分歧，多晶硅恐破位下行-20250620

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, industrial silicon prices rose by 1.51%, with market sentiment improving and prices oscillating upward in the range of 7,000 - 7,500. Polysilicon prices fell by 3.12%, continuing last week's downward trend due to reduced downstream demand [7]. - In the future, the supply of industrial silicon will remain abundant, while demand from its three major downstream industries is slowing. The polysilicon supply is in a state of reduced load operation, and demand is under significant pressure, with high inventory levels [7]. - It is recommended that the industrial silicon main contract oscillate in the range of 6,800 - 7,600, with a stop - loss range of 6,500 - 7,800. The polysilicon main contract should oscillate in the range of 30,000 - 34,000, with a stop - loss range of 29,000 - 35,000 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: Industrial silicon prices rose by 1.51% this week, with a shift in the main contract to 09. Polysilicon prices fell by 3.12% due to reduced downstream demand [7]. - Market Outlook: For industrial silicon, supply will remain loose, and demand from downstream industries is slowing. For polysilicon, supply is in a reduced - load state, demand is weak, and inventory is high [7]. - Operation Suggestions: The industrial silicon main contract should oscillate in the range of 6,800 - 7,600, with a stop - loss range of 6,500 - 7,800. The polysilicon main contract should oscillate in the range of 30,000 - 34,000, with a stop - loss range of 29,000 - 35,000 [7]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - Industrial Silicon: This week, the futures price of industrial silicon fell. The spot price was slightly flat, and the basis weakened. It is expected to continue weakening next week. As of June 20, 2025, the spot price was 8,150 yuan/ton, and the basis was 760 yuan/ton [8][13][15]. - Polysilicon: This week, the futures price of polysilicon fell significantly, the basis weakened, and the spot price declined. As of June 20, 2025, the spot price was 31 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 1,895 yuan/g [17][20]. - Futures Market: This week, the operating rate and output of industrial silicon increased. As of June 19, 2025, the national output was about 73,100 tons, and the national capacity utilization rate was 50.34% [22][24]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Raw Materials and Cost: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon decreased slightly, electricity prices dropped, and government subsidies reduced costs. The willingness of enterprises to start production during the wet season increased [26][29]. - Inventory: This week, the warehouse receipts and social inventory of industrial silicon decreased. As of June 19, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 55,179 lots, a decrease of 3,495 lots from the previous period, and the total social inventory was 559,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons [31][33]. - Downstream Situation - Organic Silicon: The output and operating rate of organic silicon increased. As of June 20, 2025, the weekly output was 45,000 tons, an increase of 4,140 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 68.4%, an increase of 2.12%. The cost of organic silicon spot increased slightly, the price decreased, and the profit declined [36][40][46]. - Aluminum Alloy: The spot price of aluminum alloy was flat, and the inventory increased. It is expected that the demand for industrial silicon will remain weak [48][53]. - Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells continued to decline, which affected the demand for polysilicon and had a negative impact on upstream industrial silicon [55][57]. - Industrial Chain Analysis: This week, the cost of polysilicon remained flat, and it is expected that the output will gradually decline. In May 2025, the total output of polysilicon plants in China was 97,355 tons, a decrease of 1,447 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% [61][63].