瑞达期货纯碱玻璃市场周报-20250620

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the futures price of soda ash rose by 1.47%, and the futures price of glass rose by 3.18%. The soda ash futures rebounded in the first half - week driven by glass, then slightly declined in the second half - week due to concerns about increased production and reduced production of photovoltaic glass. The glass futures stabilized slightly in the first half - week and rebounded in the second half - week due to short - covering and market expectations for the meeting [6]. - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain loose, demand will contract, and prices will continue to face pressure. The futures decline is expected to slow down next week. For glass, the supply is at the bottom and will not change significantly before the profit of coal - based production method turns negative. The demand is expected to weaken further, and the rebound height and strength will be limited [6]. - It is recommended to trade the SA2509 contract in the range of 1120 - 1200 with stop - losses at 1100 - 1220, and operate the FG2509 contract in the range of 960 - 1060 with stop - losses at 930 - 1080 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: Soda ash futures rose 1.47% and glass futures rose 3.18%. Soda ash futures rebounded first and then declined, while glass futures stabilized first and then rebounded [6]. - Market Outlook: Soda ash supply is loose, demand is shrinking, and prices are under pressure. Glass supply is at the bottom, and demand is expected to weaken [6]. - Strategy Recommendations: Trade SA2509 in the 1120 - 1200 range with stop - losses at 1100 - 1220, and operate FG2509 in the 960 - 1060 range with stop - losses at 930 - 1080 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Prices: Soda ash futures prices rose, and glass futures prices fell this week [8]. - Inter - delivery Spreads: The SA 9 - 1 and FG 9 - 1 spreads are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [12][14]. - Spot Prices and Basis: The spot price of soda ash fell, and the basis continued to flatten. The spot price of glass rose less than the futures price, and the basis weakened. The soda ash - glass spread continued to weaken [17][22][27]. - Specific Data: As of June 20, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the soda ash basis was 31 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1052 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton; the glass basis was 45 yuan/ton. The glass - soda ash spread was 166 yuan/ton [20][25][29]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - Soda Ash Production: The domestic soda ash operating rate and production continued to rise, but the growth rate slowed down. As of June 20, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 86.35%, a 1.44% increase, and the weekly production was 75.37 tons, a 1.83% increase [30][33]. - Corporate Profits: Soda ash corporate profits declined, while glass corporate profits increased. The upstream profits of the industry are shifting downstream [35]. - Glass Production: The number of glass production lines did not change significantly, and the overall production remained at a low level. As of June 20, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 223 in operation, and 73 cold - repaired. The national float glass production was 109.35 tons, a 0.21% increase, and it is expected to remain low next week [42][44]. - Photovoltaic Glass: The operating rate of domestic photovoltaic glass remained flat, the capacity utilization rate and daily melting volume declined, and it is expected to continue to decline next week [46]. - Inventory: Soda ash corporate inventories increased due to increased production, and glass corporate inventories also increased, with slow de - stocking [50][54]. - Downstream Demand: The number of deep - processing orders for domestic glass decreased slightly, remaining at a historical low. Demand is expected to recover with the arrival of summer heat [56].