铁矿石市场周报：铁水产量回升，铁矿期价先抑后扬-20250620

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is influenced by multiple factors. Macroscopically, the Israel - Iran conflict and the Fed's interest - rate decision, along with domestic economic data and consumption support policies, have an impact. In terms of supply and demand, the decline in Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals, combined with the decrease in port inventories and the rebound in iron - making demand, provides short - term support for iron ore. Technically, the iron ore I2509 contract is in a range - bound pattern. Considering the overall situation, it is recommended to trade the I2509 contract in the 715 - 690 range and also consider buying put options [9][56]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - As of June 20, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 703 (+0) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was 753 (-7) yuan/dry ton. The total Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 2842.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77.3 tons. The total global iron ore shipments from June 9 - 15, 2025, were 3352.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 157.7 tons. The arrivals at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 156.4 tons. The daily average hot - metal production was 242.18 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.57 tons. The port inventory increased by 102.83 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills' imported ore was 8936.24 tons, a week - on - week increase of 137.56 tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points [5][6][7]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, overseas, the Israel - Iran conflict intensifies concerns about a wider - scale conflict, and the Fed maintains the interest - rate range with expectations of two rate cuts in 2025. Domestically, industrial and consumption data show growth, and 1620 billion yuan of the 3000 - billion - yuan consumer goods replacement support funds have been allocated. In terms of supply and demand, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals decline, and domestic port inventories turn from increasing to decreasing. Steel mill blast - furnace operating rates and hot - metal production stop falling and rebound, temporarily supporting iron ore demand. Technically, the iron ore I2509 contract is in range - bound trading, with the daily K - line under pressure from multiple moving averages, and the MACD green bar shrinking. It is recommended to trade the I2509 contract in the 715 - 690 range [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2509 contract was range - bound, performing weaker than the I2601 contract. On the 20th, the spread was 29 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton [15]. 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On June 20, the Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore warehouse receipts were 3000, a week - on - week increase of 300. The net short position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was 38889, an increase of 8637 from the previous week [23]. 3.2.3 Spot Price - On June 20, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was 753 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/dry ton. This week, the iron ore spot price was weaker than the futures price, and on the 20th, the basis was 50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton [30]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Shipments and Arrivals - From June 9 - 15, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 3352.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 157.7 tons. The total Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 2842.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77.3 tons. The arrivals at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 156.4 tons, the arrivals at 45 Chinese ports decreased by 224.8 tons, and the arrivals at the six northern ports decreased by 164.6 tons [34]. 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14433.56 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69.58 tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 327.46 tons, an increase of 12.21 tons. The inventory of Australian ore increased by 22.48 tons, the inventory of Brazilian ore decreased by 122.35 tons, and the inventory of traded ore decreased by 101.85 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 8936.24 tons, a week - on - week increase of 137.56 tons. The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 301 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.57 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.69 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.40 days [37]. 3.3.3 Inventory Availability - As of June 19, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 19 days, a week - on - week decrease of 2 days. On June 19, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1751, a week - on - week decrease of 217 [40]. 3.3.4 Imports and Mine Capacity Utilization - In May, China imported 98.131 million tons of iron ore and concentrates, a decrease of 5 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9%. From January to May, the cumulative imports were 486.409 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of June 13, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines was 61.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%. The daily average fine - powder output was 38690 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20 tons, and the inventory was 58430 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4160 tons [43]. 3.3.5 Domestic Iron Ore Production - In May 2025, China's iron ore raw - ore production was 85.787 million tons. From January to May, the cumulative production was 414.32 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1%. In April 2025, the iron - fine - powder production of 433 iron - mine enterprises was 23.015 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 572000 tons, a decrease of 2.4%. From January to April, the cumulative production was 90.383 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.043 million tons, a decrease of 8.2% [47]. 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Production - In May 2025, China's crude - steel production was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to May, the cumulative crude - steel production was 431.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [50]. 3.4.2 Steel Exports and Imports - In May 2025, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, an increase of 116000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. From January to May, the cumulative steel exports were 48.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. In May, China imported 481000 tons of steel, a decrease of 41000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9%. From January to May, the cumulative steel imports were 2.553 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [50]. 3.4.3 Blast - Furnace Operating Rate and Hot - Metal Production - On June 20, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.41 percentage points, a year - on - year increase of 1.01 percentage points. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21 percentage points, a year - on - year increase of 1.03 percentage points. The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills was 242.18 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.57 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.24 tons [53]. 3.5 Option Market - Due to the decline in Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and port inventories, along with the rebound in hot - metal production, iron ore is supported, but there is still pressure during the consumption off - season. It is recommended to buy put options opportunistically [56].