瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20250620

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market saw macro - fluctuations and rising raw material prices, leading to a continued increase in the center of rubber prices. The import rubber market reported higher prices, and the domestic natural rubber market price center moved upward. However, downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, resulting in weak market trading [7]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are gradually opening for tapping. In Yunnan, rain has led to a shortage of raw materials and difficulties for processors in procurement, keeping raw material prices firm. In Hainan, although the weather is okay, the seasonal increase in raw materials has been slow due to previous typhoons, and the supply of latex cannot meet the production needs of processors, leading to intensified competition for raw material procurement. Last week, the total inventory at Qingdao Port increased slightly, with a decrease in bonded warehouses and an increase in general trade warehouses. Downstream factories' purchasing enthusiasm was low, and terminal procurement was mostly on - demand, with a decline in shipment volume compared to the previous period [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has shown mixed trends this week. Some enterprises have increased production to meet order demands, while others have suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain basically stable. The production of all - steel tire enterprises is stable, and the resumption of production of some semi - steel tire enterprises has boosted the overall capacity utilization rate [7]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,200 in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,450 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the natural rubber market had macro - fluctuations and rising raw material prices. The import rubber market reported higher prices, and the domestic natural rubber market price center moved upward. The futures market was boosted by macro factors, but downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, resulting in weak trading [7]. - Market Outlook: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually opening for tapping. Yunnan has a shortage of raw materials, and Hainan's raw material increase is slow. Qingdao Port's inventory has a mixed trend, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to be basically stable in the short term [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,600 - 14,200, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,800 - 12,450 [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Trends: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed higher with a weekly increase of 0.18%, while the main contract price of 20 - rubber closed lower with a weekly decrease of 0.33% [10]. - Position Analysis: No specific content provided. - Inter - period Spread: As of June 20, the spread between the September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 835 [22]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of June 20, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 192,840 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 32,256 tons, a decrease of 2,620 tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis: As of June 19, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of Shanghai rubber was 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from last week [31]. - 20 - Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis: As of June 19, the basis of 20 - rubber was 98 yuan/ton, a decrease of 164 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - Upstream: - Thailand: As of June 19, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 57.75 (+1) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 48.3 (+1.7) Thai baht/kg. As of June 20, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 11.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 50.4 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - Domestic: As of June 19, the price of Yunnan latex was 13,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from last week [42]. - Imports: In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical - grade rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) were 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6623 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.25% [45]. - Inventory in Qingdao: As of June 15, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1400 tons or 0.23%. The bonded area inventory was 83,900 tons, a decrease of 1.87%; the general trade inventory was 522,900 tons, an increase of 0.58%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 1.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.44 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.29 percentage points [49]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Tire Capacity Utilization Rate: As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points [52]. - Tire Exports: In May 2025, China's tire exports were 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire exports were 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%; from January to May, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 1.3353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%; from January to May, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [55]. - Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales): In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared to April and a year - on - year increase of about 6% compared to 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a slight year - on - year increase of about 1% [58].