Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic butadiene rubber futures price rebounded, and the spot price in the Shandong market slightly increased, with the price fluctuating between 11,400 - 12,000 yuan/ton. The news and raw material price transmission factors have a certain boost to the supply price and market price of butadiene rubber. The futures market has risen, and the spot market has also tried to raise prices [7]. - Due to the recent geopolitical factors causing the increase in crude oil prices, the market's concern about the increase in butadiene rubber supply price driven by rising production costs is gradually rising. The overall inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while that of trading enterprises has increased. Under the influence of cost factors, the supply price may remain firm, but the downstream terminals clearly resist high prices, and it is expected that the production - sales pressure will be difficult to ease [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has fluctuated this week. The enterprise production scheduling has gradually returned to the normal level. Some enterprises have moderately increased production to meet order demands, while a few enterprises have suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short - term, the enterprise capacity utilization rate is expected to remain basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises remains stable, and the resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance has a certain driving effect on the overall capacity utilization rate [7]. - The br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 11,920 in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The domestic butadiene rubber futures price rebounded, and the spot price in the Shandong market slightly increased, with the price range of 11,400 - 12,000 yuan/ton. The futures market rose, and the spot market tried to raise prices [7]. - Market Outlook: Geopolitical factors have led to rising crude oil prices, increasing concerns about rising production costs and supply prices. Production enterprise inventories have decreased, while trading enterprise inventories have increased. The supply price may remain firm, but downstream resistance to high prices is strong, and production - sales pressure is difficult to ease. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to remain stable [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: The br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,300 - 11,920 in the short - term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Trend: The main contract price of synthetic rubber futures closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 2.32% [11]. - Position Analysis: There is no detailed information in the provided content. - Inter - period Spread: As of June 20, the 7 - 8 spread of butadiene rubber was 160 [18]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of June 20, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 800 tons, a decrease of 4,370 tons compared with last week [21]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Price and Basis: As of June 19, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared with last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 435 yuan/ton compared with last week [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Naphtha and Ethylene Prices: As of June 19, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 642.63 US dollars/ton, an increase of 22.13 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 830 US dollars/ton, an increase of 40 US dollars/ton compared with last week [28]. - Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory: As of June 20, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.06%, an increase of 1.06% compared with last week; the butadiene port inventory was 28,400 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons compared with last week [31]. 3.3.2 Butadiene Rubber - Production and Capacity Utilization: In May 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 139,400 tons, an increase of 17,900 tons compared with last month. As of June 19, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 66.32%, an increase of 1.29% compared with last week [35]. - Production Profit: As of June 19, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was 587 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,163 yuan/ton compared with last week [38]. - Inventory: As of June 20, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 33,770 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared with last week; the manufacturer inventory was 26,950 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared with last week; the trader inventory was 6,820 tons, an increase of 610 tons compared with last week [43]. 3.3.3 Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points [46]. - Tire Exports: In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire export volume was 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%; the cumulative export volume from January to May was 1.3353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%; the cumulative export volume from January to May was 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [49].
合成橡胶市场周报-20250620
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-20 09:02