沪锌市场周报：需求淡季社库增加预计锌价震荡偏弱-20250620

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged in June, in line with market expectations. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise, and the smelter's profit has been further repaired, leading to increased production enthusiasm. The new production capacity has been gradually released, and the supply growth has accelerated. The import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. The zinc price is running weakly, downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and the inventory shipment speed has slowed down, resulting in an increase in domestic social inventory and a continuous decrease in overseas inventory. Technically, the short - selling force has weakened, and the 21,800 mark is being tested, with attention paid to the MA10 pressure. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or short lightly on rallies [2][6]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - The main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated and adjusted this week, with a weekly increase of 0.14% and an amplitude of 2.15%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 21,845 yuan/ton. The recommended operation strategy is to wait and see or short lightly on rallies [6][5]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Price Changes: As of June 20, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 21,845 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.14% from June 13, 2025. As of June 19, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,646.5 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars/ton or 0.09% from June 13, 2025 [11]. - Net Position and Holding Volume: As of June 12, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 10,776 lots, a decrease of 2,187 lots from June 6, 2025. As of June 20, 2025, the holding volume of Shanghai zinc was 259,316 lots, a decrease of 40,735 lots or 13.58% from June 13, 2025 [13]. - Price Spreads: As of June 20, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from June 13, 2025. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,035 yuan/ton, an increase of 165 yuan/ton from June 13, 2025 [19]. - Spot Premium and Discount: As of June 20, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton or 0.63% from June 13, 2025. The spot premium was 105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton from last week. As of June 19, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was - 26.89 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.47 US dollars/ton from June 12, 2025 [26]. - Inventory Changes: As of June 20, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 126,225 tons, a decrease of 4,775 tons or 3.65% from June 13, 2025. The Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 42,864 tons, a decrease of 2,602 tons or 5.72% from last week. As of June 19, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 60,600 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons or 7.64% from June 12, 2025 [27]. 3.3. Industry Situation - Upstream: In April 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. The monthly import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 494,662.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37.64% and a year - on - year increase of 72.63% [32]. - Supply Side: In April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.59 tons or 0.52%. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1224 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23,800 tons or 2.17%. The global refined zinc surplus was 16,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 33,900 tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed that the global zinc market supply - demand balance was 22,700 tons in April 2024. In May 2025, the zinc output in China was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. In May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%, and the export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97% [35][40][43]. - Downstream: - Galvanized Sheets: From January to April 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 683,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.11%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%, and the export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57% [46][47]. - Real Estate: From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%. The housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 402.3241 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 56.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% [50][51]. - Infrastructure: From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year [57]. - Home Appliances: In May 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator output was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. In May 2025, the air - conditioner output was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [59][60]. - Automobiles: In May 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%, and the production volume was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% [64].