瑞达期货烧碱市场周报-20250620

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of weakening supply - demand has started to materialize, with the spot price of caustic soda falling. The main futures contract SH2509 is oscillating at a low level near the lower - cost range. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with the range estimated to be around 2220 - 2350 [7]. - In the medium - to - long term, there are many caustic soda production facilities scheduled to be put into operation from June to July, resulting in high supply pressure. The delivered volume of the main contract remains high, while the off - peak demand from non - aluminum sectors is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. Although the cost of self - supplied power plants has some support, the caustic soda spot price still has room to decline [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Price: As of June 20, 2025, the SH2509 contract closed at 2256 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from last week's close. The converted 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to 2531 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: - Supply: The overall caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.3% to 81.2%, with some plants in central, northern, and northeastern China reducing their loads, and some in northwestern and eastern China restarting or increasing production [7]. - Demand: Alumina is still in the resumption phase. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.24% week - on - week to 80.80%, while the dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.64% to 60.73% [7]. - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.63% week - on - week to 36.56 tons, at a moderately high level compared to the same period [7]. - Profit: The chlor - alkali profit dropped to around 501 yuan/ton, still showing considerable profitability [7]. - Outlook: Next week, a 750,000 - ton plant of Dongying Huatai will undergo maintenance, and some plants are planned to restart, which may lead to a decline in capacity utilization. There is high supply pressure in the medium - to - long term. The futures contract is at a discount, with cost support below 2200, but there is a lack of positive drivers for a rebound [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: The main caustic soda contract oscillated at a low level this week, and the position of the 09 contract remained basically stable [8]. - Spot Market: - Prices: The benchmark price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 810 yuan, with a converted 100% price of 2531 yuan; in Henan, the market price is 928 yuan, with a converted 100% price of 2900 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, the market price is 912 yuan, with a converted 100% price of 2850 yuan. The ex - factory price of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong is 3150 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine is - 25 yuan/ton [14][24][29][34]. - Basis: The spot price decline has narrowed the basis [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream: - Raw Salt: The prices of raw salt in the northwest and Shandong remained stable [41]. - Steam Coal: The price of 5500K steam coal in Qinhuangdao remained stable at 609 yuan/ton [46]. - Supply: In May, the caustic soda production was 3.4642 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%. This week, the operating rate rose to 81.2% [49]. - Demand: - Alumina: In May, the alumina production was 7.6323 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate last week was 80.87% [55]. - Non - Aluminum Downstream: This week, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.8%. The prices of alumina and viscose staple fiber declined [59][62]. - Import and Export: - Import: In April, the caustic soda import was 900 tons; from January to April, the cumulative import was 2800 tons [68]. - Export: In April, the caustic soda export was 391,000 tons; from January to April, the cumulative export was 1.349 million tons [74]. - Inventory: The weekly sample inventory of liquid caustic soda was 365,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.63% [79]. - Profit: The chlor - alkali profit in Shandong decreased but remained quite profitable [82]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was reported at 20.97%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 23.15% [85].