沪镍不锈钢市场周报：原料偏紧需求乏力，镍不锈钢弱势调整-20250620

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are in a weak adjustment due to tight raw materials and weak demand. For nickel, it is expected to be adjusted at a low level, and for stainless steel, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see for nickel. For stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see or take a short position with a small position [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Nickel - This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated and declined, with a weekly decline of 1.37% and an amplitude of 1.90%. The closing price of the main contract was 118,280 yuan/ton [7]. - Macroscopically, the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged. Fundamentally, the implementation of the PNBP policy in Indonesia increased the cost of nickel resource supply, and the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines recovered, but the port inventory of domestic nickel ore decreased. The high raw material price and the downward trend of nickel price led some non - integrated smelters to cut production. The demand of new energy vehicles increased, but the proportion was small. Recently, supply and demand were both weak, domestic inventory decreased, and overseas inventory remained stable. Technically, the short - selling power weakened, and it was expected to be adjusted at a low level [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Stainless Steel - This week, stainless steel fluctuated and declined, with a weekly decline of 0.36% and an amplitude of 1.20%. The closing price of the main contract was 12,505 yuan/ton [7]. - The implementation of the PNBP policy in Indonesia increased the cost of nickel resource supply, and the Philippines planned to implement a nickel ore export ban. The cost support of raw materials weakened. Steel mills maintained normal production, but the supply pressure still existed. Entering the traditional off - season, the downstream was cautious. The domestic inventory removal was not good. Technically, it was expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see or take a short position with a small position [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Price Movement - This week, the futures prices of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel declined. As of June 20, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) in the whole country was 925 yuan/nickel, a decrease of 15 yuan/nickel from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 118,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,640 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from last week [13]. - Basis Situation - This week, the basis of Shanghai nickel was low, and the basis of stainless steel was high. As of June 20, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 120,625 yuan/ton, and the basis was 2,345 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,450 yuan/ton, and the basis was 945 yuan/ton [17]. - Price Ratio - This week, the ratio of nickel to stainless steel fluctuated, and the ratio of tin to nickel increased. As of June 20, the price ratio of nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.46, a decrease of 0.1 from last week; the price ratio of tin to nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 2.2 yuan/ton, the same as last week [22]. - Net Buying Volume of the Top 20 - This week, the net buying volume of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel increased, and that in stainless steel also increased. As of June 20, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 16,361 lots, a decrease of 7,310 lots from June 16, 2025. The net position of the top 20 in stainless steel was 653 lots, a decrease of 5,027 lots from June 16, 2025 [31]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Supply Side - Nickel Ore and Production Profit - The port inventory of nickel ore increased, and the production profit of electrowinning nickel shrank. As of June 20, the national nickel ore inventory in major ports was 739,240 tons, an increase of 2.41% from last week. The production profit of electrowinning nickel was - 1,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,025 yuan/ton from last week [34][35]. - Production and Import and Export of Electrolytic Nickel - The production of domestic electrolytic nickel increased, and the import and export volume increased significantly. In April 2025, the production of electrolytic nickel was 36,450 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.46%. In May 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,687.576 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.65%; from January to May, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 78,738.983 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.39% [39]. - Inventory in Exchanges - The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the LME nickel inventory remained stable. As of June 20, the LME nickel inventory was 21,669 tons, a decrease of 1,473 tons from last week. The inventory of Shanghai nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 25,304 tons, a decrease of 1,651 tons from last week [41][45]. 3.3.2. Demand Side - Stainless Steel Production and Export - The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased steadily, and the export volume rebounded. In May 2025, the total production of stainless steel crude steel was 3.4629 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.13%. Among them, the production of 400 - series was 702,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.44%; the production of 300 - series was 1.7847 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17%; the production of 200 - series was 976,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.58%. In May 2025, the import volume of stainless steel was 122,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons; the export volume was 360,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,100 tons [49]. - Inventory in Key Regions - The destocking of 300 - series stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi was not good. As of June 20, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 329,227 tons, an increase of 322 tons from last week; the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 596,595 tons, an increase of 8,635 tons from last week [53]. - Stainless Steel Production Profit - As of June 20, the production profit of stainless steel was 102 yuan/ton, an increase of 68 yuan/ton from last week [57]. - Related Industries' Demand - The real estate industry recovered slowly, and the home appliance industry was at the end of the peak season. From January to May 2025, the new construction area of houses was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.8%; the completed area of houses was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%; the real estate development investment was 362.3384 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. In May 2025, the air - conditioner production was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.48%; the household refrigerator production was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.72%; the household washing machine production was 9.412 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.49%; the freezer production was 2.01 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [59]. - The automobile industry performed well, and the machinery industry improved steadily. In May 2025, the production of new energy vehicles in China was 2.649 million units, a year - on - year increase of 27.7%; the sales volume was 2.686 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.9%. In May 2025, the excavator production was 25,845 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%; the production of large and medium - sized tractors was 24,616 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16.64%; the production of small tractors was 11,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 8.3% [64].