苯乙烯市场周报-20250620

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, driving up international oil prices and significantly increasing the price of styrene futures this week. As of June 20, 2025, the EB2507 contract closed at 7,734 yuan/ton, up 1.23% from last week's closing price [7]. - Next week, the impact of the shutdown of Baolai's plant will expand, and production and capacity utilization are expected to decline slightly. However, as the plants of Hengli and Shenghong have restarted as scheduled, the ample supply of spot goods is expected to continue. Downstream demand is in the off - season and mainly driven by rigid demand. High finished - product inventories and shrinking profits of EPS, PS, and ABS restrain demand growth. The total inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. In terms of cost, the possibility of the US getting involved in the Israel - Iran conflict has increased, and international oil prices may fluctuate strongly. Pure benzene and ethylene may passively follow the rise in oil prices. Overall, the cost side will still be the main factor affecting styrene prices next week, and styrene futures are expected to fluctuate strongly. The main styrene contract is expected to shift to the EB2508 contract next week [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Price: Due to the intensified Israel - Iran conflict, international oil prices rose, leading to a significant increase in styrene futures prices. As of June 20, 2025, the EB2507 contract closed at 7,734 yuan/ton, up 1.23% from last week [7]. - Fundamentals - Supply: This week, Hengli Petrochemical's 720,000 - ton and Shenghong Petrochemical's 450,000 - ton plants restarted, while Panjin Baolai's 350,000 - ton plant shut down. Production increased by 7.04% week - on - week to 361,900 tons, and capacity utilization increased by 5.2% week - on - week to 79.01% [7]. - Demand: This week, downstream operating rates showed mixed trends. The EPS operating rate decreased by 1.84% week - on - week to 53.63%, the PS operating rate increased by 0.4% week - on - week to 58.7%, the ABS operating rate decreased by 0.11% week - on - week to 63.97%, the UPR operating rate remained stable at 30%, and the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate increased by 2.95% week - on - week to 74.09% [7]. - Inventory: This week, factory inventory increased by 2.25% week - on - week to 188,800 tons, East China port inventory decreased by 17.13% week - on - week to 66,300 tons, and South China port inventory decreased by 3.85% week - on - week to 12,500 tons [7]. - Cost: This week, the prices of pure benzene and ethylene CFR Northeast Asia rose, driving up the non - integrated cost to 7,804.56 yuan/ton. Since the increase in styrene spot prices was less than the cost increase, non - integrated profits decreased to 205 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - Futures Price and Warehouse Receipts: The main styrene futures contract rose significantly this week, and new warehouse receipts were registered [8]. - Net Position and Monthly Spread: The main contract is about to change, and the position of the 07 contract decreased. The 07 - 08 spread shrank slightly [12]. Spot Market - Spot Price and Basis: Spot prices increased significantly, the basis shrank, and the futures market was in contango [16]. Upstream Market - Ethylene and Pure Benzene Prices: The RMB price of ethylene rose, and the price of pure benzene in East China increased significantly [22]. - Ethylene Supply: In April, ethylene production and imports decreased month - on - month [26]. 3. Industry Situation Supply - Capacity and Production: In May, there was no new styrene production capacity put into operation. Styrene production in May was 1.4463 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.18% and a year - on - year increase of 7.33% [32]. - Capacity Utilization: This week, the capacity utilization rate of styrene plants increased month - on - month [36]. Demand - Downstream Prices and Operating Rates: The spot prices of EPS, PS, and ABS rose, and downstream operating rates showed mixed trends [39]. - Specific Downstream Operating Rates: This week, the EPS operating rate decreased month - on - month, the PS operating rate increased month - on - month, the ABS operating rate decreased month - on - month, the UPR operating rate remained stable, and the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate increased month - on - month [44][48][52]. Import and Export - In April, styrene imports were 6,700 tons, an increase month - on - month and a decrease year - on - year; exports were 59,000 tons, an increase both month - on - month and year - on - year [55]. Inventory - Overall Inventory: Port inventory was 78,800 tons, and factory inventory was 188,800 tons [61]. - Port Inventory: East China port inventory was 66,300 tons, and South China port inventory was 12,500 tons [65]. Production Cost and Profit - Non - integrated costs increased, and profits shrank [69]. Import Cost and Profit - This week, import profits remained negative, and the import window was closed [73]. 4. Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of the main styrene contract was reported at 25.57%. As the options of the 07 contract are about to expire, implied volatility decreased significantly [77].