芳烃橡胶早报-20250623

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, after the near - end TA maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester start - up increased, inventory decreased slightly, basis strengthened again, and spot processing fees improved. In the future, TA will enter the inventory accumulation stage, and the monthly spread drivers may shift between PX inventory depletion and additional polyester load reduction, with increased volatility [2] - For MEG, the domestic start - up rate continued to rise, Iranian devices had centralized shutdowns, port inventory decreased slightly, and the basis weakened. In the future, it will end the de - stocking stage, with limited inventory accumulation due to Iranian imports, and is expected to be in a volatile pattern [2] - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate increased, production and sales remained stable, and inventory accumulated slightly. Demand - side efficiency weakened, but exports maintained high growth. There are also production reduction plans, and the processing fee is expected to remain weak [2] - For natural rubber and 20 - numbered rubber, the national explicit inventory was stable, the Thai cup - lump price rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2] - For styrene, the prices of related products changed daily, and the domestic profit of styrene had a daily increase of 85 [2] 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Index Changes: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased by 1.9, PTA spot price increased by 85, and the processing fee increased by 122. The basis increased by 45, and the production - sales ratio increased by 0.10 [2] - Device Changes: Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 - million - ton device and Hengli's 2.2 - million - ton device were under maintenance [2] - Market Outlook: After the near - end maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester start - up increased, inventory decreased slightly, and the basis strengthened. In the future, it will enter the inventory accumulation stage, and the monthly spread drivers may shift [2] MEG - Price and Index Changes: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene increased by 10, MEG domestic price increased by 9, and the cash flow (ethylene) increased by 38 [2] - Device Changes: Shaanxi Yueneng's 400,000 - ton device restarted, and Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device was under maintenance [2] - Market Outlook: The domestic start - up rate continued to rise, Iranian devices had centralized shutdowns, port inventory decreased slightly, and the basis weakened. In the future, it will end the de - stocking stage, with limited inventory accumulation [2] Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 105, and the profit increased by 30 [2] - Device Changes: There were no device maintenance records this week [2] - Market Outlook: The start - up rate increased to 95.1%, production and sales remained stable, and inventory accumulated slightly. Demand - side efficiency weakened, but exports maintained high growth. There are also production reduction plans [2] Natural Rubber & 20 - numbered Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the daily change of the US - dollar Thai standard rubber was - 25, and the weekly change was 5. The daily change of the RU main contract was - 130, and the weekly change was 25 [2] - Market Outlook: The national explicit inventory was stable, the Thai cup - lump price rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2] Styrene - Price and Index Changes: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the price of styrene (Jiangsu) increased by 85, and the domestic profit of styrene increased by 85 [2]