LPG早报-20250623

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Report's Core View - In the short - term, with the expectation of increased supply, the expected increase in chemical demand provides some support. It is expected that Shandong will be boosted, while East and South China markets will be more volatile. Geopolitical factors have significantly escalated, which is expected to have a large impact on the sentiment side, and cautious operation is recommended [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Basis Information - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4630. The PG futures price has increased, with the 07 - 09 spread decreasing by 6 to 97. The US to Far - East arbitrage window is closed [1] - Civil gas prices first rose and then fell. The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4657. The PG futures price has strengthened significantly unilaterally due to geopolitical shocks. The 07 contract basis has weakened to 80 (-141), and the spreads have weakened significantly, with 07 - 08 at 10 and 07 - 09 at 195 [1] Price Changes - From June 1 to June 20, 2025, the daily changes in prices include: South China LPG -10, East China LPG 7, Shandong LPG 80, Shandong ether - post - carbon - four 1, Shandong alkylated oil -5, etc. [1] Market Conditions - The CFR prices of propane in South China and East China are basically flat. The outer - market prices have continued to strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio has increased [1] - In terms of regional spreads, the internal - external spread has strengthened, FEI - MB has strengthened slightly, FEI - CP and MB - CP have weakened. The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed. The AFEI propane FOB discount has weakened slightly to 2.25, and the CP CIF discount has dropped significantly to 12 US dollars. Freight has increased slightly [1] Downstream Profits - The PDH spot profit has improved due to the increase in drawing prices. The profit of producing PP with FEI has decreased, while the profit of producing with CP has increased. The profits of alkylation and MTBE have decreased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread has shifted downward [1] Fundamental Information - Due to delayed arrivals and a slight increase in chemical demand, port inventories and storage capacity ratios have decreased, while factory inventories have remained basically flat, and external sales have remained basically unchanged [1] - Chemical demand has support, with the operating rates of PDH and MTBE increasing, and the alkylation rate remaining basically flat. Subsequently, many PDH plants are expected to increase their loads, driving up the PDH operating rate [1] Warehouse Receipt Information - The number of registered warehouse receipts is 8358 lots (-647), mainly due to a decrease of 270 at Jinneng Chemical and 377 at Shanghai Yuchi [1]