Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given documents. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the report acknowledges the short - term support of structural squeezes on absolute prices but focuses on three potential fundamental changes in the third quarter, including the impact of the S232 investigation, the return of US copper inventory, and the weakening in some sectors [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are decent, and attention should be paid to demand. In a low - inventory situation, pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - For zinc, the idea of short - allocation remains unchanged, and short on rebounds. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be held, and inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities should be noted [2][3]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are generally weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [5]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate between 16700 - 17100 next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June [6]. - For tin, in the short term, long - allocation can be held cautiously, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [8]. - For industrial silicon, the spot price is expected to be under pressure, and in the long - term, it will run at the bottom anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [10]. - For lithium carbonate, in the medium - long term, the price will oscillate weakly. In the short term, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week, pressuring the price [12]. Summaries by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Data: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the LME copper inventory decreased by 4125 tons to 99200 tons, and the注销仓单 decreased by 4300 tons to 44800 tons. The LME cash - 3m spread continued to rise, breaking through $200 [1]. - Weekly Outlook: Recognize short - term support from structural squeezes but focus on potential third - quarter changes such as the S232 investigation, US copper inventory return, and weakening in some sectors [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Data: From June 16 - 20, 2025, domestic aluminum prices decreased by about 50 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2100 tons to 342850 tons [1]. - Market Situation: Supply increased slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in June, and there is still a supply - demand gap. 6 - 7 months of gentle de - stocking [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Data: This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. From June 16 - 20, 2025, domestic zinc social inventory remained at 7.09 million tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 1250 tons to 126225 tons [2]. - Supply and Demand: Supply increased by about 20000 tons in June compared to May, and the monthly average of ore processing fees is expected to increase by 150 yuan/ton. Domestic demand weakened marginally, and overseas demand in Europe is weak [2]. - Strategy: Short - allocation, hold internal - external positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month reverse arbitrage [2][3]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Data: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained at $60, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 1542 tons to 205140 tons [3]. - Supply and Demand: Pure nickel production remained high, nickel bean imports increased in May, and overall demand is weak [4]. - Opportunity: Continue to focus on the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Data: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil decreased by 100 yuan/ton [5]. - Market Situation: Some steel mills cut production passively since late May, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly [5]. Lead - Price and Inventory Data: This week, lead prices rebounded from a low level. From June 16 - 20, 2025, the LME lead inventory decreased by 3350 tons to 284075 tons [6]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is expected to be flat in June, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate between 16700 - 17100 next week [6]. Tin - Price and Inventory Data: This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. From June 16 - 20, 2025, the LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons to 2175 tons [7][8]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is affected by the uncertain resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, and demand from the solder and terminal electronics and photovoltaic sectors is weak [8]. - Strategy: Hold long - allocation cautiously in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [8]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Data: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the basis of different grades increased by 80, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 556 [10]. - Market Situation: The overall market start - up increased slightly. The basis strengthened rapidly, and the spot price was strong. It is expected to be under pressure later [10]. - Long - term Trend: In the long - term, it will run at the bottom anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Data: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the SMM electric carbon and industrial carbon prices decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2164 [12]. - Market Situation: The price decreased this week, with overall inventory accumulation. In the short term, demand is weak, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week [12]. - Long - term Trend: In the medium - long term, the price will oscillate weakly if the operating rate of leading enterprises does not decline significantly [12].
有色早报-20250623
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-06-23 01:39