原木期货日报-20250623

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Report Date: June 23, 2025 [1] - Author: Cao Jianlan [1] - Author ID: Z0019556 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is mentioned in the report. Group 3: Core View - The recent trading of the log futures market is based on the logic of delivery costs. The main contract has rebounded from a low of around 750 to over 800 yuan, and the monthly structure has changed to the pattern of near - strong and far - weak. Fundamentally, the demand for logs enters the off - season during the high - temperature and rainy season from June to August. There is still pressure from the increase in the arrival volume in June. Currently, New Zealand is in winter, and the shipping volume is expected to decrease seasonally, leading to a situation of weak supply and demand. The 07 contract has 6 trading days left before entering the delivery month, and the long - short game on the futures market continues. It is recommended to mainly wait and watch on a single - side basis, and pay attention to risk control as the main contract gradually switches [3][4] Group 4: Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On June 20, the prices of log 2507, log 2509, and log 2511 contracts were 812.0, 797.5, and 794.0 yuan/m³ respectively, with increases of 14.0, 3.5, and 2.5 yuan/m³ and corresponding increases of 1.75%, 0.44%, and 0.32% compared to June 19 [2]. - Spreads: The 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 spreads on June 20 were 14.5, 3.5, and 18.0 yuan/m³ respectively, with increases of 10.5, 1.0, and 11.5 yuan/m³ compared to June 19 [2]. - Basis: The basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts on June 20 were - 62.0, - 47.5, and - 44.0 yuan/m³ respectively, with decreases of 14.0, 3.5, and 2.5 yuan/m³ compared to June 19 [2]. - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on June 20 compared to June 19, with the prices of 3.9A small, medium, and large radiata pine in Rizhao Port being 730.0, 750, and 840 yuan/m³ respectively, and those in Taicang Port being 730, 760, and 800 yuan/m³ respectively. The price of spruce 11.8 in Rizhao Port was 1090 yuan/m³ [2]. - Outer - market quotes: The CFR prices of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine and 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged at 110 US dollars/JAS m³ and 123 euros/JAS m³ respectively from June 13 to June 20 [2]. - Import cost: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on June 20 was 7.182 yuan, a decrease of 0.01 yuan compared to June 19. The import theoretical cost was 777.37 yuan, a decrease of 1.22 yuan compared to June 19 [2]. Group 5: Supply - Monthly supply: In May, the port shipping volume of logs was 195.5 million m³, an increase of 22.8 million m³ or 13.20% compared to April. The number of ships in the port decreased by 5 to 58, a decrease of 7.94% [2]. Group 6: Inventory - Weekly inventory: As of June 13, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 345 million m³, a week - on - week increase of 6 million m³. The inventories in Shandong and Jiangsu were 201.00 million m³ and 113.31 million m³ respectively, with week - on - week increases of 9.5 million m³ (4.96%) and 1.3 million m³ (1.19%) [2][3]. Group 7: Demand - Weekly demand: As of June 13, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 5.98 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 million m³ or 5%. The daily average outbound volumes in Shandong and Jiangsu were 3.30 million m³ and 1.90 million m³ respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 0.08 million m³ (2%) and 0.38 million m³ (17%) [2][3]