Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the low - sulfur fuel oil market are still supported due to the shortage of medium - sulfur blending components, despite a slight increase in the arrival volume of arbitrage vessels from the West. The downstream marine fuel demand for high - sulfur fuel oil remains strong and is also supported by the peak summer power generation season. The intensifying Israel - Iran conflict may boost the sales of Singapore marine fuel in the short term [3]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is positive. The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased in the week of June 18, and the price is above the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line trending upward. However, the high - sulfur main position has a long position with a decrease in long positions, while the low - sulfur main position has a short position with an increase in short positions [3]. - After the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, the geopolitical concern has been raised again. Crude oil prices opened higher, and it is expected that fuel oil will follow the upward trend. The FU2509 is expected to operate in the range of 3380 - 3450, and the LU2508 in the range of 4000 - 4050 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of fuel oil are positive, with the basis showing a spot premium, inventory decreasing, price above the 20 - day line, and the high - sulfur main position being long (although long positions are decreasing) and the low - sulfur main position being short (with an increase in short positions). It is expected that fuel oil will follow the upward trend of crude oil due to geopolitical factors, with specific operating ranges for different contracts [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: The shortage of medium - sulfur blending components, strong downstream demand for high - sulfur fuel oil, the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on increasing the demand for refueling of detouring ships, the decrease in Singapore fuel oil inventory, and the geopolitical concerns caused by the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: The high - sulfur main position has a decrease in long positions, and the low - sulfur main position has an increase in short positions [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Supply: The arrival volume of arbitrage vessels from the West has increased slightly, but the shortage of medium - sulfur blending components has led to a tight supply of compliant 0.5% sulfur marine fuel in Singapore [3]. - Demand: The downstream marine fuel demand for high - sulfur fuel oil remains strong, and the peak summer power generation season also provides support. The conflict may increase the demand for refueling of detouring ships [3]. - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 211 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 142 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [3]. 3.4 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of June 18 was 2289.9 million barrels, a decrease of 22 million barrels [3][8]. 3.5 Spread Data No relevant content provided.
大越期货燃料油早报-20250623
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-06-23 02:38