大越期货聚烯烃周报-20250623

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Weekly Report - Date: June 20, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, L09 rose 2.12% to close at 7415, with a total position reduction of about 7300 lots; PP09 rose 2.11% to close at 7242, with a total position increase of about 53000 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running above the 20-day moving average, showing a bullish technical trend [5]. - The main position indicator in Dayue's five major indicators shows that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently [5]. - The basis of the L main contract is 45, and that of the PP main contract is 38, with the discount of the futures price narrowing [5]. - Fundamentally, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since October last year. On June 21, the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities escalated the Middle East geopolitical crisis, and crude oil is expected to strengthen, which is positive for the cost side. In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for PE agricultural films, the demand for packaging films is weakening, most enterprises are reducing their loads, and the overall downstream demand is weak. There is still pressure from new capacity coming on stream in the future. It is also the off - season for PP downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. The inventory of the polyolefin industry chain is neutral. This week, the main contracts of L and PP are expected to fluctuate [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Prices and Changes: L01 rose 1.61% to 7347, L05 rose 1.58% to 7334, L09 rose 2.12% to 7415; PP01 rose 2.13% to 7188, PP05 rose 2.35% to 7185, PP09 rose 2.11% to 7242 [6]. - Spot Prices and Changes: The price of L delivery products increased by 200 to 7460, and the price of PP delivery products increased by 30 to 7280 [6]. - Basis: The basis of the L main contract is 45, and that of the PP main contract is 38, with the discount of the futures price narrowing [5] 3.2 Inventory - Warehouse Receipts: The report provides a chart of L and PP warehouse receipts, but specific data is not further elaborated [15] - Inventory Data: PE comprehensive factory inventory is 556 (a decrease of 13), PE social inventory is 559 (a decrease of 27), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 608 (an increase of 26), and PP social inventory is 245 (an increase of 9) [6] 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [17] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [19] 3.4 Other Indicators - 开工率: The report provides charts of PE and PP开工 rates, but specific data is not further elaborated [33][36] - Profit: The report provides charts of PE and PP production cash flows, including coal - chemical, oil - based, and PDH production methods, but specific data is not further elaborated [39][41] - External Market Prices: The report provides charts of polyolefin internal - external price differences, as well as the US dollar prices of PE and PP, but specific data is not further elaborated [44][47][50] - Downstream: The report provides charts of the average downstream开工 rates of PE and PP, but specific data is not further elaborated [53][56]