焦煤焦炭早报（2025-6-23）-20250623

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the price of coking coal may weaken in the short - term due to factors such as stricter environmental and safety inspections leading to a slight decline in coal mine production, weak downstream demand, increasing coal mine shipment pressure, and a decrease in raw material demand caused by more blast furnace overhauls in steel mills during the off - season of finished product consumption [3]. - The report expects that coke will continue to operate weakly and stably in the short - term. Although coke production has been cut due to losses and environmental protection factors, steel mills' strategy of controlling purchases remains unchanged, resulting in significant shipment pressure on coke enterprises [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Recently, environmental and safety inspections have become stricter, leading to a slight decline in coal mine production, but it remains at a relatively high level. Downstream demand is weak, with coal - using enterprises purchasing in small volumes, increasing coal mine shipment pressure and causing some mine sites to lower their quotes. The weakening coke price also provides little support for coking coal prices. This situation is considered bearish [3]. - Basis: The spot market price is 940, with a basis of 145, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is considered bullish [3]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 774 million tons, port inventory is 312 million tons, and independent coke enterprise inventory is 669.5 million tons. The total sample inventory is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week, which is considered bullish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is considered neutral [3]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is considered bearish [3]. - Expectation: Some steel mills have proposed a fourth - round price cut for coke, lowering market sentiment. During the off - season of finished product consumption, more blast furnace overhauls in steel mills and increased control of arrivals by coke and steel plants have further reduced the rigid demand for raw materials. Therefore, the short - term coking coal price is expected to weaken [3]. 3.2 Daily View - Coke - Fundamentals: Affected by environmental inspections and profit factors, the enthusiasm of some coke enterprises in the production area has been dampened, leading to voluntary production cuts. As the decline in raw material coal prices narrows, the cost pressure on coke enterprises has increased, and coke supply continues to shrink. This situation is considered bearish [7]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1300, with a basis of - 84.5, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is considered bearish [7]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 642.8 million tons, port inventory is 203.1 million tons, and independent coke enterprise inventory is 87.3 million tons. The total sample inventory is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week, which is considered bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is considered neutral [7]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is considered bearish [7]. - Expectation: The supply - demand contradiction in the current coke market remains unresolved. Although coke enterprises have continuously cut production due to losses and environmental protection factors, steel mills' strategy of controlling purchases remains unchanged, resulting in significant shipment pressure on coke enterprises. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, coke is expected to continue to operate weakly and stably in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Coking Coal - Factors - Bullish factors: An increase in molten iron production and limited increase in supply [5]. - Bearish factors: Slower procurement of raw material coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. 3.4 Coke - Factors - Bullish factors: An increase in molten iron production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. 3.5 Inventory - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [19]. - Independent coke enterprise inventory: Independent coke enterprise coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [22]. - Steel mill inventory: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [25]. 3.6 Other Data - Coke oven capacity utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises across the country is 74%, which is the same as last week [36]. - Average profit per ton of coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [40].