大越期货国债期货早报-20250623

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The bond market is generally favorable, with most yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declining, and the ultra - long end performing slightly stronger. Treasury bond futures rose across the board, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.21%. The policy easing pattern remains unchanged, and the money market is expected to be optimistic, leaving room for the bond market to improve. However, it is waiting for new stimulating factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Fundamentals: The bond market is warm, with yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly down. Treasury bond futures rose, and the money market changed from tight to balanced. The overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions edged up slightly, while the seven - day repurchase rate dropped 5 bp. The policy easing pattern persists, and the bond market has room to rise [2]. - Money Supply: On June 20, the central bank conducted 161.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 202.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 41.3 billion yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of TS, TF, and T main contracts shows that the cash bonds are at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of the TL main contract shows that the cash bonds are at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: The deliverable bond balances of TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, which is neutral [3]. - Market Trends: The TS, TF, and T main contracts are all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - Main Positions: The TS and TF main contracts have net long positions with an increase in long positions. The T main contract has a net long position with a decrease in long positions [4]. - Expectations: In May, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time in eight months. The May financial data matches the real - economy operation, and the growth rates of social financing, M2, and RMB loans are significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate. After the impact of the tariff war suspension is quickly released and the reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut are implemented, the money market remains loose [4]. 3.2 Main Contract Market Elements | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Position Change | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2509 | 109.150 | +0.02% | 88,700 | 293,116 | 4,332 | 240013.IB | | TF2509 | 106.275 | +0.02% | 79,000 | 240,303 | 2,851 | 240001.IB | | TS2509 | 102.544 | +0.02% | 55,500 | 188,500 | - 1,405 | 240012.IB | | TL2509 | 121.32 | +0.21% | 106,200 | 152,375 | 1,480 | 200012.IB | [7]