大越期货菜粕早报-20250623

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2640 and 2700. The rapeseed meal market is influenced by factors such as the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, low oil mill operation rates, low rapeseed meal inventories, and the impact of China's tariff on Canadian oil cakes. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a slight upward bias [9]. - The current market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - No relevant content provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market [11]. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the overseas futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [11]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, supporting commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil cakes; low inventory pressure on oil mill rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: An increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainties in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.42% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.38% [9]. - The spot price is 2620, with a basis of - 59, indicating a discount to the futures [9]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and trending upward [9]. - The import volume of rapeseed in June was lower than expected, and the import cost was volatile with an upward bias [26]. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory slightly decreased to a low level [29]. - The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills slightly decreased [31]. - Aquatic fish prices slightly rebounded, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [39]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions decreased, but capital inflows were observed, which is bullish [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The rapeseed meal market is expected to oscillate between 2640 and 2700 in the short term. It was affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil cakes, causing it to rise and then fall. The soybean meal also influenced the rapeseed meal price to return to the range oscillation [9].