大越期货生猪期货早报-20250623

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the May Day holiday, the supply and demand of live pigs are expected to decrease. The market may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price is expected to return to a short - term oscillatory pattern. The LH2509 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,700 - 14,100 [8]. - The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation, and the overall consumer willingness of residents has declined after the May Day holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. However, the additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of live pigs show that after the May Day holiday, the enthusiasm for domestic slaughter has weakened. It is expected that the supply of pigs and pork will decrease this week. The demand is also weak due to the end of the holiday and the pessimistic macro - environment. Overall, the market may see a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to an oscillatory pattern. The base price shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures. The inventory indicates that as of March 31, the live pig inventory decreased, and as of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was stable. The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. It is expected that the pig price will oscillate in the range of 13,700 - 14,100 for the LH2509 contract [8]. 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic live pig consumption market has entered a off - season, with a decrease in the slaughter of large pigs. The supply and demand of live pigs have both decreased, and the spot price is oscillating weakly in the short term, with the futures following the same pattern [10]. - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork has weakened in the short term. The spot price of live pigs is oscillating weakly due to the double - reduction in supply and demand, but the decline may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [10]. - The domestic live pig breeding profit remains at a low level, but there is still a short - term profit. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is still good in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [10]. - The spot price of live pigs may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain an oscillatory and weak pattern in the short term. When the price stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and the recovery in demand [10]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: The domestic live pig inventory has decreased year - on - year, and the room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price may be limited [11]. - Likely to be Bearish: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the consumption of live pigs and pork has entered an off - season after May Day [11]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Inventory: As of March 31, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [8]. - Price: The average national spot price is 14,160 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is 265 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures [8]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [8].