2025-06-23 02:09Investment Rating - The stock rating for Li Auto Inc. is Overweight [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that June sales for Li Auto were slower than expected, tracking behind the company's 2Q volume guidance of 123-128k units, with a June target of 48-53k units, resulting in a hit rate of 34-38% in the first half of June [2][3] - Despite the current sales weakness, the report maintains a positive outlook for the second half of the year, anticipating a resurgence in operations supported by a new model cycle and improved execution from the Li Auto team [2][4] - The report suggests that the recent adjustments in Li Auto's channel strategy and increased price competition may temporarily affect sales momentum, but these impacts are expected to be transient [2] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Li Auto's ADR/H shares fell by 4%, underperforming against the HSI which declined by 1%, primarily due to slower month-to-date sales [1][3] - Concerns were raised regarding a 0.3% reduction in holdings by major shareholder Meituan's Wang Xing during June 10-13 [1][3] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the lukewarm sales in June do not disrupt the thesis of a second-half operational resurgence, which is expected to be driven by the introduction of new models [2] - The anticipated recovery in order momentum is supported by lessons learned from previous product launches and potentially more competitive pricing strategies [2] Valuation and Market Data - The price target for Li Auto Inc. is set at US$36.00, with the stock closing at US$26.94 on June 17, 2025 [4] - The market capitalization of Li Auto is approximately Rmb192,891.6 million, with an enterprise value of Rmb87,595.7 million [4]