花旗：美国经济- 鲍威尔释放鸽派信号的三个原因

Investment Rating - The report indicates a base case median expectation of two 25 basis point rate cuts this year, with a possibility of one rate cut being signaled [7]. Core Insights - The report outlines three primary reasons for a dovish stance from Chair Powell: three months of softer core inflation, rising continuing jobless claims, and softer housing data [6][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Inflation Data - Core PCE inflation is projected to register an annualized rate of 1.6% over March, April, and May, indicating a slowdown from stronger readings earlier in the year [9]. - The decline in shelter inflation is expected to continue due to weak housing activity and a decrease in Case-Shiller house prices [9]. Labor Market - Continuing jobless claims have risen to 1,956,000, the highest level since 2021, while initial jobless claims remain lower, suggesting weak hiring conditions [9]. - The labor market is perceived as "resilient" with 139,000 new jobs added and an unemployment rate of 4.2% in May, but recent data adds caution to Powell's outlook [9]. Housing Market - The housing sector is contracting, with prices, permits, and starts for single-family homes all declining. The NAHB index fell to 32, the lowest since 2022, particularly weak in the South [9]. - Current mortgage rates are contributing to the contraction in the housing market, indicating that interest rates remain restrictive and may need to be reduced [9].