野村：美元兑人民币中间价模型

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific securities [12]. Core Insights - The projected USD/CNY fix is 7.1799, which is 10 pips higher than the previous projection of 7.1789 and 3 pips lower than the previous official spot close [1]. - The model projection with the counter-cyclical factor is 7.1746, indicating a decrease of 43 pips from the previous fix [1]. - The top four weighted contributions to the projected change in the currency fix are from RUB, EUR, JPY, and KRW, with varying impacts measured in pips [3]. Summary by Sections Currency Projections - The USD/CNY fix model projects a value of 7.1799, reflecting a slight increase from the previous model [1]. - The model with the counter-cyclical factor suggests a lower projection of 7.1746, indicating a potential adjustment in currency valuation [1]. Contributions to Change - The report highlights the top four currencies contributing to the projected change, with RUB, EUR, JPY, and KRW being the most significant [3]. Model Performance - Recent model errors without counter-cyclical factor adjustments show a range of daily model errors, indicating fluctuations in the accuracy of projections [5]. - The daily change in USD/CNY fix has shown significant variability, with changes recorded in pips over the specified period [7].