2025-06-23 02:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for CGN Power and Dongfang Electric, with target prices adjusted to HKD2.90 (from HKD2.70) and HKD12.30 respectively. Hyundai E&C is rated as "Buy" with a target price of KRW93,000 [4][10][51]. Core Insights - China's nuclear power capacity is projected to reach 66GW by 2025 and 110GW by 2030, accounting for 7% of the power supply mix by 2030, up from 5% in 2024. This growth is supported by the approval of at least 10 new reactors annually since 2022 [2][9][13]. - The development of small modular reactors (SMRs) is highlighted as a key area for expansion, with several projects nearing commercial operation. However, the high levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for SMRs compared to large-scale reactors and renewables presents challenges for domestic deployment [3][28][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of equipment and turnkey solution providers in capturing growth in the nuclear sector, as they are better positioned than utilities, which face longer return profiles and tariff variations [4][9]. Summary by Sections China's Nuclear Power Development - China's nuclear capacity is on track to nearly double by 2030, with significant investments in new technologies including SMRs and fusion [9][12]. - The government aims for 70GW of nuclear power by 2025, with expectations to surpass 110GW by 2030 as approvals accelerate [13][30]. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) - China is advancing in SMR technology, with projects like Shidao Bay 1 and Changjiang Linglong-1 nearing commercial operation. However, the current capex for SMRs is significantly higher than for large-scale reactors [3][28]. - The ACP100 reactor, designed for multiple applications, is set for grid connection by 2026, showcasing China's capability in SMR development [22][28]. Investment Opportunities - Key players in the nuclear supply chain include CGN Power, Dongfang Electric, and Hyundai E&C, with the latter benefiting from global nuclear expansion [4][10]. - The report identifies potential for SMR technology exports, particularly to developing markets with limited grid capacity [32]. Fusion Power - Fusion power is still in early stages, with significant challenges in achieving sustainable reactions. However, China is investing in fusion research with a target to build an industrial prototype by 2035 [33][38]. - Opportunities in the supply chain for fusion-related equipment are anticipated, driven by ongoing experimental projects [42]. Uranium Market - China's reliance on uranium imports remains high, with current prices elevated due to geopolitical tensions. The demand for uranium is expected to double by 2040, driven by the expansion of nuclear capacity [45][49].