摩根士丹利：钢铁行业_等待需求拐点

Investment Rating - The report maintains an 'In-Line' industry view for the steel sector, indicating a balanced risk-reward profile [7]. Core Insights - Carbon steel prices are experiencing softening momentum, with continued downside risks expected in the near term due to unclear demand recovery [6]. - Stainless steel demand is anticipated to remain lackluster, trailing carbon steel recovery, with no inflection expected in 2025 [8]. - The sector is currently trading at a ~34% discount to its historical average on EV/normalized EBITDA, but consensus earnings downgrades for 2025 are anticipated [9]. Carbon Steel Summary - The report highlights that EU HRC spreads have risen above historical averages due to supportive trade policies and prospects for defense/infrastructure spending [6]. - ArcelorMittal and voestalpine are identified as the most preferred companies in carbon steel, with voestalpine showing resilience in EBITDA/t during the downturn [10]. - Thyssenkrupp shares have seen significant re-rating, but the report suggests that the current valuation may not reflect the underlying business's cash needs and earnings potential [10]. Stainless Steel Summary - Acerinox is favored in the stainless steel segment due to its resilient earnings profile and exposure to the US/alloys market [11]. - The report notes that Aperam's diversified business model may not be enough to counteract the weak demand in Europe, impacting near-term earnings momentum [11]. - The overall stainless steel market is expected to face challenges due to global growth concerns and below-average spreads in the EU/US [8]. Demand Drivers - Key demand drivers for steel include construction and automotive sectors, with significant contributions from building & infrastructure and mechanical equipment [21][22]. - The report emphasizes that the automotive sector's performance is crucial for steel demand, particularly in Western Europe and the US [27][30]. Supply and Trade Dynamics - The report discusses the steel supply landscape, noting that major producers in the EU and China are adjusting production levels in response to demand fluctuations [65][68]. - It highlights the net trade flows of steel, with China being a significant exporter, impacting the EU market dynamics [80][81]. Valuation and Performance - The report provides a snapshot of equity performance, indicating that steel equities have re-rated sharply, with some companies trading at premiums to their sum-of-the-parts valuations [10][12]. - The overall steel sector's performance is compared against indices like MSCI Europe and STOXX Europe, showing varied performance across different companies [13][16].