摩根士丹利：中美脱钩与半导体设备选股策略

Investment Rating - The industry view for Semiconductor Production Equipment is rated as Attractive [6] Core Insights - Texas Instruments announced a historic investment of US$60 billion in semiconductor production in the US, specifically targeting fabs in Texas and Utah, in response to the US government's manufacturing repatriation policy [3][9] - NVIDIA will no longer include sales to China in its guidance due to US export restrictions, estimating a significant impact of US$2.5 billion from January to April and US$8 billion from May to July [4][9] - The ongoing US-China decoupling is expected to benefit certain Semiconductor Production Equipment stocks, particularly those with close ties to Texas Instruments, such as Disco and Screen HD [9][10] Summary by Sections Investment Announcements - Texas Instruments' investment is the largest in domestic legacy semiconductor production in history, emphasizing the shift towards US-based manufacturing [3][9] - NVIDIA's exclusion of China from sales forecasts reflects the impact of US regulations on semiconductor exports [4][9] Market Dynamics - The domestic production of AI chips in China is anticipated to increase capital intensity, particularly benefiting companies like Advantest and Tokyo Seimitsu due to rising demand for testing equipment [13] - Japanese equipment makers such as Disco and Tokyo Seimitsu are expected to gain from the increased semiconductor fab construction momentum in the US [10] Competitive Landscape - Some Japanese equipment manufacturers face no significant US competition, particularly in areas like cleaning equipment and thermal processing systems, which may insulate them from market share losses despite the US fab expansions [12] - The introduction of new semiconductor processes in the US could favor US-made equipment over Japanese counterparts due to local support advantages [11] Stock Ratings - The report includes specific stock ratings for companies in the Semiconductor Production Equipment sector, with Advantest, DISCO, and SCREEN Holdings rated as Overweight, while others like Nikon are rated Underweight [60]