摩根士丹利：中国股票策略-A 股情绪在政策未变背景下停滞

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies. Core Insights - A-share investor sentiment remains flat amid lukewarm macro conditions and geopolitical instability, with the weighted MSASI at 66% and simple MSASI at 53% as of June 18, 2025 [2][7] - The PBOC announced measures to open up China's financial markets, including a digital RMB international operating center and pilot programs for offshore trade, which may benefit financial companies [5] - Real GDP is tracking at 4.8% YoY, with expectations of deceleration to below 4.5% in the second half of the year due to weak domestic demand and the payback of export front-loading [4] Summary by Sections A-Share Market Sentiment - A-share investor sentiment indicators remained flat, with average daily turnover for ChiNext, Equity Futures, and Northbound rising by 3%, 13%, and 9% respectively, while A-shares saw a 1% decline [2] - Southbound net inflows reached US$2.4 billion from June 12-18, with year-to-date inflows at US$88.5 billion [3] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a deceleration in real GDP growth to below 4.5% in the second half of 2025, influenced by weak domestic demand and the expiration of a tariff truce [4] - Retail sales showed improvement due to trade-in subsidies, but overall consumer goods sales remain subdued [4] Financial Market Developments - The PBOC's measures aim to enhance overseas development and open up financial markets, indicating a shift in focus from risk control to development [5] - The report highlights potential volatility in the market, particularly for high beta stocks, as geopolitical uncertainties persist [15]