汇丰：80 个数据点看世界，动力是否会暂时减弱？2025 年 5 月

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Prysmian (PRY IM) with a target price of EUR74 and Emerson Electric (EMR US) with a target price of USD153, indicating positive investment opportunities in the capital goods sector [7][15][76][77]. Core Insights - The HSBC Global Composite Capex Lead Indicator declined to -30 in May 2025 from -7 in March 2025, reflecting a slowdown in global capital expenditure due to tariff volatility, although some sectors showed improvement [7][21]. - The FTSE World Industrials Index has shown resilience, increasing by 9% quarter-to-date despite geopolitical uncertainties and tariff-related challenges [7][14]. - The report highlights a potential for positive performance in the FTSE World Industrials over the next six months, supported by a reading of -30 in the lead indicator [7][21]. Summary by Sections Global Capex Outlook - The report forecasts global capex to reach approximately USD3.9 trillion in 2025, with sectors like Software, Airlines, and Computer Hardware expected to lead growth [23][24]. - The capital goods sector is experiencing varied performance across regions, with EMEA showing improvement while APAC and the Americas faced declines [7][31][35]. Regional Analysis - Americas: The capex lead indicator declined marginally to -36 in May 2025, with mixed performance across sectors; manufacturing improved while construction and utilities declined [31][32]. - EMEA: The capex lead indicator improved to -11 in May 2025, driven by early-cycle improvements in manufacturing and transport [33][34]. - Asia Pacific: The capex lead indicator fell to -40 in May 2025, primarily due to a significant decline in mainland China, although Japan showed some improvement [35][36]. Subsector Performance - Manufacturing: The lead indicator improved to +13 in May 2025, with positive trends in the Americas and EMEA, while mainland China declined [43][44]. - Utilities: The lead indicator rose significantly to +45 in May 2025, indicating strong growth in solar and gas generation investments [56][57]. - Consumer: The lead indicator improved slightly to -56 in May 2025, with low-level improvements in the Americas and EMEA, while Japan and mainland China saw declines [58][59]. Stock Recommendations - Prysmian: The company is well-positioned to benefit from US electrification trends and has a strong demand outlook in the T&D segment, justifying a Buy rating [68][69]. - Emerson Electric: The company is expected to benefit from a transformation towards automation and improved margins, leading to a Buy rating with a target price of USD153 [76][77].