瑞银-中国住房调查_一线城市情绪低迷但趋稳

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the China property sector, but it indicates a continued pessimistic outlook for housing prices and suggests the need for government intervention to stimulate the market [4]. Core Insights - The latest China Housing survey shows a subdued intention to buy property, with 48% of respondents indicating no intention to purchase, up from 36% in September 2024 [7]. - There is a divergence in sentiment among cities, with stable purchase intentions in tier 1 cities (32% intention to buy) compared to declines in tier 2 (20%) and tier 3 cities (19%) [16]. - The survey indicates that 42% of respondents expect further declines in housing prices over the next 12 months, with 47% of homeowners reporting paper losses, particularly in tier 2 and 3 cities [4][9]. Summary by Sections Housing Market Sentiment - The intention to buy property has decreased, with a notable increase in respondents who do not plan to purchase [7]. - In tier 1 cities, purchase intentions have increased slightly, while tier 2 and 3 cities have seen declines [16]. Factors Influencing Purchase Confidence - The top three factors boosting household confidence to buy properties are job promotions/salary increments, lower mortgage rates, and lower down-payment requirements [3][23]. - The report suggests that interest rate cuts may be the most effective measure to improve confidence, with expectations of a 20-30 basis point cut for the remainder of 2025 [3]. Price Expectations and Market Dynamics - The survey indicates a continued pessimistic outlook for housing prices, with 42% of respondents anticipating further declines [4]. - Secondary listings across 50 cities have increased by 7.1% year-over-year, indicating a potential downward trend in property prices [29]. Government Intervention - The report highlights the need for government intervention through pro-growth policies, mortgage rate cuts, and financing support to stimulate the market [4]. - Project completion is identified as a critical priority for the government to restore confidence in new home sales [3].