摩根士丹利：中国房地产_5 月数据恶化；预计疲软趋势将在第三季度延续

Investment Rating - Industry view is rated as In-Line [9] Core Insights - Property sales and home prices are expected to continue declining in the third quarter due to high secondary inventory and weakening resident sentiment [1] - Quality state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with good visibility are recommended for investment, with CR Land identified as a top pick [1][2] Monthly Property Sales - Home sales in 65 cities saw a year-on-year decrease of 11% in primary sales volume and a 5% decrease in secondary sales volume [3] - Year-to-date growth for primary sales is now at 0.1% and 13% for secondary sales as of May 2025 [3] Property Prices - Primary home prices in 70 cities dropped by 4.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while secondary home prices fell by 6.3% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month [4] - In top-10 cities, secondary prices decreased by 5.4% year-on-year, and in top-100 cities, they fell by 7.2% year-on-year [4] Secondary Market - Listing volume for secondary properties increased, with new listings up by 6% year-on-year but down 11% month-on-month [5] - Client visits to properties increased by 20% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month [5] Inventory - Primary inventory levels in tracked cities remained stable at 23.4 months, with tier 1 cities decreasing slightly to 14.2 months [6] Land Market - Land sales in 300 cities decreased by 13.8% year-on-year in gross floor area (GFA) but increased by 17.8% in value [7] - The year-to-date decline in land sales is now at 6.4% in GFA [7]