瑞银：2025 - 26 年全球经济与市场展望

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Tariff uncertainty is significantly influencing the economic outlook, with a notable impact on inflation and fiscal policy [4][10][18] - The tariffs imposed are expected to show a clearer effect on core inflation data starting from July 2024, with projected increases in inflation rates across various countries [10][16] - The net effect of tariffs is anticipated to lift the Federal Funds rate, indicating a tightening of monetary policy [27][29] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The report outlines various tariffs imposed on sectors such as steel, aluminum, autos, and auto parts, detailing their base rates and exemptions [8] - The first-round impact of tariffs on US core PCE prices is estimated at 1.48%, with specific contributions from different tariff categories [16] Inflation Projections - Inflation rates are projected to rise, with the US experiencing a significant increase from 2.2% in January 2025 to 7.0% in April 2025, reflecting the impact of tariffs [10][29] - Core PCE inflation is expected to reach 3.3% in 2025, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [29] Fiscal Policy - US fiscal policy is described as net contractionary due to the impact of tariffs, with significant increases in the deficit projected from 2025 to 2034 [18][23] - The report highlights the expected fiscal deficits in the Eurozone, which are less than half of those in the US, suggesting a different fiscal landscape [76] Economic Growth - The report anticipates a modest growth in real GDP, with projections of 1.0% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, reflecting the broader economic conditions influenced by tariffs [29] - Unemployment rates are expected to rise slightly, indicating potential labor market challenges [29] Market Sentiment - There is a noted shift in capital flows from the US to Europe, driven by changing investor sentiment and economic conditions [97][99] - Despite high policy uncertainty, European confidence indicators have not deteriorated as significantly as those in the US, suggesting a relative resilience in the Eurozone [35][70]