摩根士丹利：中国市场-市场需系紧安全带，同时坚守主线赛道

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive view on the long-term structural story of the Chinese equity market, suggesting potential for fund inflows over the next 6-12 months [17][21]. Core Insights - Market volatility is expected to rise in the near term due to several upcoming global trade and tariff events, which could impact market risk appetite [3][9]. - The upcoming 2Q results season may reignite concerns over earnings, although the expectation is for results to be in line with previous quarters [10][11]. - Investor sentiment may be dampened by the expiration of lockup periods for high-momentum stocks, prompting preemptive reductions in exposure [12]. - The likelihood of major stimulus measures being introduced at the July Politburo meeting is low, with expectations shifting towards September or October for potential policy adjustments [14][15]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - The report highlights critical dates in July and August that could lead to increased market volatility, including the expiration of tariff pauses and ongoing trade negotiations [3][4][9]. - The report notes that while the Chinese market has shown signs of recovery, uncertainties surrounding trade negotiations and earnings results could lead to temporary profit-taking [11][22]. Earnings Outlook - The report anticipates that the 2Q earnings results will align with expectations, following a trend of normalization in earnings delivery since late 2024 [10][11]. - Concerns over earnings may be exacerbated by the timing of results coinciding with tariff negotiations, potentially leading to skepticism in the second half of 2025 [11]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced investment approach, advocating for exposure to high-quality tech and Internet companies while maintaining some dividend yield plays [21][22]. - The removal of Pop Mart from the focus list and the addition of PICC P&C is recommended due to its attractive yield and resilience during market volatility [13]. Long-term Outlook - Structural improvements in the Chinese equity market remain intact, with MSCI China trading at a fair valuation compared to other major indices [17][19]. - The report emphasizes the potential for global capital to gradually return to China's market as investors seek diversification amid a slower macro outlook [17][21].