摩根士丹利：香港房地产-住宅市场七年后迎来转折

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Henderson Land to "Overweight" (OW) from "Equal Weight" (EW) [8][14] - SHKP remains rated as "Overweight" (OW) [5][14] - Sino Land is downgraded to "Equal Weight" (EW) [14] - NWD and Wharf are rated as "Underweight" (UW) [5][14] Core Insights - Hong Kong's residential property market is showing signs of recovery after a seven-year decline, with prices down 30% from their peak in August 2021 [4][15] - The report anticipates a potential upcycle lasting 4-5 years, driven by structural under-supply, population growth, and favorable market conditions [4][15] - The CCL index has declined 30% since August 2021, with current affordability levels reverting to 2011 levels [4][15] - Developers are trading at a 60% discount to NAV, with strong balance sheets and dividend yields of 6-7%, indicating significant upside potential [4][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Year-to-date, Hong Kong home prices have declined by 1.5%, which is better than the expected -5% for the first half of 2025 [3][10] - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 21% year-to-date, positively impacting market sentiment [3][10] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is structurally under-supplied, with land sales collapsing in recent years and an increase in population and migrants from mainland China [4][10] - The removal of additional stamp duty since February 2024 has further stimulated demand from non-local buyers [3][39] Stock Selection - Preferred stocks include SHKP (OW), Henderson (OW), and Kerry (EW) due to their strong market positions and benefits from lower HIBOR [5][10] - NWD (UW) and Wharf (UW) are viewed with caution due to liquidity concerns and unattractive valuations [5][10] Price Forecasts - The report forecasts a flat year-over-year change in property prices for 2025, with a slight increase of 2% expected in the second half [29][30] - The effective mortgage rate has decreased to approximately 2%, benefiting the residential market and easing financing pressures for developers [53][59] Key Drivers of Recovery - Factors supporting the recovery include low HIBOR rates, population growth, and increased contributions from mainland buyers [20][39] - The report highlights that the current discount to NAV of 60% is not fully priced in, suggesting potential upside of 50% if valuations normalize [19][23]