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多空交织,豆粕高位震荡
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-06-23 02:57
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is in a high - level oscillation due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The market focuses on the impact of US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [10][14]. - The soybean market is also in an oscillatory state, with the market concentrating on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [15]. - In the short term, US soybeans may oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance. Domestic soybean meal may return to an interval oscillation pattern [10][17]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Tips The content does not explicitly present weekly tips. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are short - term bullish for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is still variable, and the US soybean market is oscillating strongly in the short term, expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory increased from a low level, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills also increased [13]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans continues [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [15]. - Bearish factors: The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, China has increased its purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated and increased [22]. - USDA's Recent Six - Month Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: There have been some changes in the harvest area, yield, output, and other indicators of US soybeans in the past six months [23]. - US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024: The sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other progress of US soybeans in 2024 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [24][25][26]. - Brazilian Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in 2024/25: The planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in 2024/25 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28]. - Argentine Soybean Planting Progress in 2024/25: The planting progress of Argentine soybeans in 2024/25 is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [29]. 3.5 Position Data The provided content does not mention position data. 3.6 Soybean Meal and Soybean Trading Strategies 3.6.1 Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal oscillates within the range of 2900 - 3100 in the short term. Short - term interval trading is the main strategy [17]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. 3.6.2 Soybeans - Futures: The A2509 contract of soybeans oscillates within the range of 4100 - 4300. Short - term interval trading is recommended [20]. - Option strategy: Wait and see [20]. 3.7 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) 3.7.1 US Soybean Market Analysis - US soybeans are oscillating strongly in the short term due to Sino - US tariff negotiations and biodiesel policies. The overall good planting weather in US soybean - producing areas suppresses the upward space of the market [33]. - The market focuses on the variability of US soybean - producing area weather and changes in Sino - US trade relations. The US soybean market may oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, waiting for further guidance [33]. 3.7.2 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - Imported Soybean Arrival: The arrival of imported soybeans reached a high in June, and the overall volume increased [36]. - Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory: The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, while the soybean meal inventory continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the demand for forward stocking weakened [37][39]. - Soybean Meal Transaction: The downstream procurement in China has rebounded to a relatively high level, and the pick - up volume has remained good [44]. - Pig Farming Inventory: The inventory of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices and piglet prices decreased slightly [46][48]. 3.8 Market Structure of Meal Products - The soybean meal futures oscillated strongly, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the discount fluctuated slightly [59]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference between the 2509 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal remained oscillating [61]. 3.9 Technical Analysis 3.9.1 Soybean Technical Analysis - Soybean futures oscillated and rebounded, driven by the trend of US soybeans and the rise of domestic soybean spot prices [67]. - The KDJ indicator oscillated at a high level, and the short - term technical indicator entered the rebound stage, but the high - level indicator limited the further upward space [67]. - The MACD oscillated and rebounded at a low level, and the short - term technical rebound may continue for a short time [67]. 3.9.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis - Soybean meal oscillated strongly this week, mainly driven by US soybeans. The expected concentrated arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans suppressed the upward space of the market [69]. - The KDJ indicator oscillated at a high level, entering the technical oscillation and consolidation stage, and the upward space at the high - level indicator may be limited [69]. - The MACD oscillated and rebounded, and the short - term technical rebound was accompanied by a narrowing of the red energy [69]. 3.10 Next Week's Focus Points - The most important points are the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Sino - US trade relations and the follow - up of the tariff war, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [72][73]. - The second - important points are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [74]. - The third - important points are macro - factors and the conflicts in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine [74].