广发期货《农产品》日报-20250623

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Grains and Oilseeds - Domestic soybean inventory pressure is manageable, and soybean meal inventory remains low. Despite improved开机 rates, there is no inventory pressure on soybean meal due to active downstream pick - up. The basis has slightly improved this week. The subsequent supply is expected to maintain a high arrival volume, and the sustainability of demand should be monitored. The unilateral trend of soybean meal is not yet clear, but the support from US soybeans is strengthening, and the Brazilian premium is also expected to be strong before the expectation of US soybean imports opens. The futures price may follow the US soybeans for a short - term correction, but the space is limited. It is recommended to place rolling long orders on dips [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of live pigs maintains a volatile structure. The slaughter weight of live pigs is slowly declining, and the reluctance to sell among farmers has increased recently, driving a rebound in the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, which supports the price this week. There are no obvious signs of improvement on the demand side, and the market price is expected to remain volatile [3]. Corn and Corn Starch - Currently, the supply varies with the rhythm of traders. Northeast traders have tight inventories and are reluctant to sell at low prices, keeping the price firm. North China traders take profits after the corn price rises to a high level, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants has recovered on weekends, with the price remaining stable with partial declines. The profit of downstream deep - processing has recovered, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the inventory is stable. The breeding sector replenishes inventory on a just - in - time basis. However, the shrinking price difference between wheat and corn and even parity have increased the substitution for feed use, limiting the increase in corn prices. In the long - term, the tight supply of corn, low import volume, and increasing breeding consumption support the upward trend of corn prices. In the short - term, the tight supply supports the corn price, but the concentrated listing of wheat restricts the upward rhythm. However, the expansion of the minimum purchase price policy range supports the price, and the corn market remains in a volatile and slightly strong state with limited amplitude. Attention should be paid to the subsequent wheat market and policy situation [6]. Sugar - The sugar production data in Brazil in late May increased year - on - year, and the weather in India and Thailand is favorable for sugarcane growth. The global supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected that raw sugar will maintain a volatile and weak pattern. Currently, the negative factors in the market have been fully reflected in the price trend. If there are no new negative factors to drive the market, the possibility of a significant decline in sugar prices is small. It is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation this week, with a reference range of 5650 - 5800 [10]. Oils and Fats - For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4100 ringgit. Due to concerns about the slowdown in export growth in the first 20 days, the crude palm oil futures have slightly declined after reaching a high. In the short - term, it will repeatedly test the support at 4100 ringgit. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level stagnant and declining trend. In the short - term, it is expected to pull back and seek support at 8500 yuan, and there is a possibility of breaking below 8500 yuan and further falling to the 8300 - 8350 yuan range under the influence of the oscillation of Malaysian palm oil. For soybean oil, crude oil has entered an oscillating adjustment state after a significant increase on the 13th, and the supply in the Strait of Hormuz has not been interrupted, so the upside space of crude oil is limited at present, which affects the trend of vegetable oils used as biodiesel raw materials. In the short - term, the CBOT soybean oil main July contract is oscillating below 55 cents. In the domestic market, it is currently the lightest demand season, with schools on vacation and reduced demand from canteens and small restaurants around schools. The high factory operating rate and high soybean oil production have led to inventory accumulation. If the futures price enters a stagnant and adjusting trend, the spot basis quotation will be supported; if the futures price rises again, the spot basis quotation will be dragged down and may decline [12]. Cotton - The market driving force is still weak, the operating rate of the industrial downstream continues to decline, and the finished product inventory continues to rise. However, the weakening force is still not strong. The basis of old - crop cotton is still relatively firm, and only a small amount of cotton in Kashgar has slightly adjusted the basis, but the mainstream price remains unchanged, so there is still support for cotton prices. The long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the macro and industrial downstream demand [13]. Eggs - The national egg supply is still relatively abundant. The sales speed of low - priced eggs is acceptable, while that of high - priced eggs is average. It is expected that the national egg price may rise slightly this week and then stabilize, with a slight decline later [14][17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Grains and Oilseeds - Soybean Meal: The current price in Jiangsu is 2940 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of M2509 is 3067 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.32%) from the previous value; the basis of M2509 is - 127 yuan, up 10 yuan (7.30%) from the previous value; the spot basis quote in Guangdong is m2509 - 140; the Brazilian 8 - month shipment has a disk import profit of 188 yuan, up 27 yuan (16.8%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 26001, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - Rapeseed Meal: The current price in Jiangsu is 2581 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.35%) from the previous value; the futures price of RM2509 is 2679 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 0.56%) from the previous value; the basis of RM2509 is - 98 yuan, up 6 yuan (5.77%) from the previous value; the spot basis quote in Guangdong is rm09 - 90; the Canadian 11 - month shipment has a disk import profit of - 30 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 31.25%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 25824, down 30 yuan (- 0.12%) from the previous value [1]. - Soybeans: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3960 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 4259 yuan, up 26 yuan (0.61%) from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean contract is - 299 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 9.52%) from the previous value; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3690 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract is 3750 yuan, down 14 yuan (- 0.37%) from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean - 2 contract is - 60 yuan, up 14 yuan (18.92%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 19811, down 316 yuan (- 1.57%) from the previous value [1]. - Spreads: The soybean meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) is - 30 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 11.11%) from the previous value; the rapeseed meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) is 284 yuan, up 18 yuan (6.77%) from the previous value; the oil - meal ratio of the spot is 2.87, up 0.017 (0.60%) from the previous value; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.66, up 0.010 (0.38%) from the previous value; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of the spot is 350 yuan, up 9 yuan (2.57%) from the previous value; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of 2509 is 388 yuan, up 5 yuan (1.31%) from the previous value [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - Futures Indicators: The main contract basis is 505 yuan, down 135 yuan (- 21.09%) from the previous value; the price of live pigs 2507 is 13335 yuan, up 80 yuan (0.60%) from the previous value; the price of live pigs 2509 is 13895 yuan, up 135 yuan (0.98%) from the previous value; the 7 - 9 spread of live pigs is 560 yuan, up 55 yuan (10.89%) from the previous value; the main contract position is 76202, down 84 (- 0.11%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 750, unchanged from the previous value [3]. - Spot Prices: The current prices in Henan and Shandong are 14400 yuan and 14500 yuan respectively, with changes of 0 yuan and 50 yuan; the price in Sichuan is 13650 yuan, down 100 yuan from the previous value; the price in Liaoning is 13950 yuan, up 50 yuan from the previous value; the price in Guangdong is 15490 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous value; the price in Hunan is 13910 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the price in Hebei is 14300 yuan, up 100 yuan from the previous value [3]. - Spot Indicators: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 145340 heads, down 1483 heads (- 1.01%) from the previous value; the weekly white - strip price is 20.32 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the weekly piglet price is 28.00 yuan, up 0.9 yuan (3.17%) from the previous value; the weekly sow price is 32.52 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the weekly slaughter weight is 128.28 kg, down 0.5 kg (- 0.42%) from the previous value; the weekly self - breeding profit is 19 yuan, up 22.3 yuan (768.97%) from the previous value; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit is - 187 yuan, up 23.9 yuan (11.32%) from the previous value; the monthly fertile sow inventory is 40380000 heads, down 10000 heads (- 0.02%) from the previous value [3]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: The price of corn 2509 is 2409 yuan, up 4 yuan (0.17%) from the previous value; the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis is - 29 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 16.00%) from the previous value; the 9 - 1 spread of corn is 120 yuan, up 2 yuan (1.69%) from the previous value; the Shekou bulk grain price is 2460 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.41%) from the previous value; the north - south trade profit is 9 yuan, up 10 yuan (1000.00%) from the previous value; the CIF price is 1927 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.12%) from the previous value; the import profit is 533 yuan, up 12 yuan (2.35%) from the previous value; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning is 16, down 132 (- 89.19%) from the previous value; the position is 1818031, up 12153 (0.67%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 216521, unchanged from the previous value [6]. - Corn Starch: The price of corn starch 2507 is 2701 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.04%) from the previous value; the spot price in Changchun is 2720 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the spot price in Weifang is 2940 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis is 19 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 5.00%) from the previous value; the 7 - 9 spread of corn starch is - 87 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.33%) from the previous value; the starch - corn disk spread is 292 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 1.02%) from the previous value; the Shandong starch profit is - 88 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 12.82%) from the previous value; the position is 254743, down 14605 (- 5.42%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 24233, unchanged from the previous value [6]. Sugar - Futures Market: The price of sugar 2601 is 5573 yuan, up 47 yuan (0.85%) from the previous value; the price of sugar 2509 is 5720 yuan, up 62 yuan (1.10%) from the previous value; the ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.53 cents, up 0.18 cents (1.10%) from the previous value; the 1 - 9 spread of sugar is - 147 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 11.36%) from the previous value; the main contract position is 368972, down 15708 (- 4.08%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt number is 27669, down 610 (- 2.16%) from the previous value; the effective forecast is 0 [10]. - Spot Market: The price in Nanning is 6030 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.17%) from the previous value; the price in Kunming is 5855 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis in Nanning is 310 yuan, down 52 yuan (- 14.36%) from the previous value; the basis in Kunming is 135 yuan, down 62 yuan (- 31.47%) from the previous value; the imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4393 yuan, down 42 yuan (- 0.95%) from the previous value; the imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) is 5578 yuan, down 55 yuan (- 0.98%) from the previous value; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning is - 1637 yuan, down 52 yuan (- 3.28%) from the previous value; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) and Nanning is - 452 yuan, down 65 yuan (- 16.80%) from the previous value [10]. - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production is 1110.72 million tons, up 115.72 million tons (11.63%) from the previous value; the cumulative national sugar sales is 724.46 million tons, up 149.81 million tons (26.07%) from the previous value; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 646.50 million tons, up 28.36 million tons (4.59%) from the previous value; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi is 65.73 million tons, down 0.88 million tons (- 1.32%) from the previous value; the cumulative national sugar sales rate is 65.22%, up 7.49 percentage points (12.97%) from the previous value; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi is 63.96%, up 6.03 percentage points (10.41%) from the previous value; the national industrial inventory is 386.26 million tons, down 34.48 million tons (- 8.20%) from the previous value; the sugar industrial inventory in Guangxi is 232.97 million tons, down 27.07 million tons (- 10.41%) from the previous value; the sugar industrial inventory in Yunnan is 104.70 million tons, down 3.46 million tons (- 3.20%) from the previous value; the sugar import volume is 13 million tons, up 8 million tons (160.00%) from the previous value [10]. Oils and Fats - Soybean Oil: The current price in Jiangsu is 8450 yuan, up 50 yuan (0.60%) from the previous value; the futures price of Y