大越期货豆粕早报-20250623

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean market in the US is fluctuating above the thousand - point mark, waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern, affected by the increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices [8]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by the interaction of the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybeans. It is expected to be range - bound, with the bottom supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand, but the upward space is limited by the expected high yield of South American soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - China - US tariff negotiations have reached a short - term agreement, which is beneficial to US soybeans. However, the good planting weather in the US has led to a short - term decline in the US soybean market. It is expected to fluctuate above the thousand - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to a volatile state, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - holiday price expectation. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal and the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas, as well as the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war, have kept the soybean meal market volatile in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Multi - empty Concerns Soybean Meal - Likely to Rise: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Likely to Fall: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China will reach a high in June, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans continues [13]. Soybeans - Likely to Rise: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Likely to Fall: The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased its purchase of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppresses the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From June 11 to June 20, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed a certain degree of change [15]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From June 12 to June 20, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal was relatively weak after May Day, and the discount slightly increased [17][22]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From June 10 to June 20, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal showed a decreasing trend [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, production, consumption, inventory, etc. [30][31]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, Brazil, etc. in different periods from 2023/24 to 2024/25 is provided [32][33][37]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from December 2024 to June 2025 show the changes in soybean harvest area, yield, production, inventory, etc. [40]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in the soybean meal market have increased, and funds have flowed in [8]. - The main short positions in the soybean market have decreased, and funds have flowed in [10].