甲醇周报：中东地缘未见降温，甲醇高位震荡-20250623

Report Overview - The report is titled "Chang'an Research - Methanol Weekly Report", dated June 23, 2025, focusing on the methanol market [1][2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core View - Due to the unresolved Middle - East geopolitical conflict, methanol prices continue to rise. Iranian methanol plants are shut down, increasing import reduction expectations and strengthening the basis in coastal areas. The rise in crude oil prices also has a positive feedback on methanol prices. Domestically, supply is increasing, while demand is stable with limited growth. The short - term market trend depends on the geopolitical situation. If tensions persist, the market will be stable and slightly strong; if the situation eases, prices will fall from high levels. The impact of Iranian production and export restrictions will be felt after July, and near - month contracts are relatively stronger. However, the potential for price increase is limited as the current prices are close to the annual high, and the risk of further price speculation is increasing [3][25] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures continued to rise. Geopolitical conflict news in the Middle - East fermented, causing significant fluctuations in energy and chemical products. As Iran is the main source of China's methanol imports, the supply - side impact on methanol was more severe. The 2509 contract rose by over 5% last week. In the spot market, prices in various regions increased significantly, and the basis in Jiangsu's Taicang expanded. The price difference between regions widened, opening up arbitrage opportunities [6] 3.2 Supply Side - Domestic Supply: The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol plants increased last week, and production continued to rise. Some previously shut - down or reduced - load plants resumed operation, and the overall recovery volume exceeded the loss. The current profit margins give little incentive for manufacturers to reduce production, and there are no planned maintenance plants in the near future. The capacity utilization rate was 88.65%, up 0.67 percentage points month - on - month and 5.12 percentage points year - on - year. Weekly production was 199.78 tons, up 1.52 tons month - on - month and 24.86 tons year - on - year [8] - Overseas Supply: The overseas methanol plant operating rate dropped significantly. The international methanol plant operating rate was 55.11%, down 15.8 percentage points month - on - month, and weekly production was 80.39 tons, down 23.05 tons month - on - month. Due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, Iranian methanol plants have all shut down, and there is a high possibility of further conflict escalation. Non - Iranian plants in North and South America are operating stably, while some in Southeast Asia and Africa have reduced production. Import reduction in July is almost certain [10] 3.3 Demand Side - In the demand side, port prices have risen sharply, leading to traders hoarding goods and downstream resistance. In the inland market, although price increases are smaller, downstream industries' profit margins have shrunk, and most enterprises are facing increased losses. As it is the consumption off - season, there is a greater expectation of plant load reduction. The MTO plant capacity utilization rate was 89.2%, up 0.64 percentage points month - on - month and 16.53 percentage points year - on - year. However, MTO plant losses have increased, and there is a possibility of load reduction in the future. The capacity utilization rates of traditional downstream plants vary, with some increasing and some decreasing [11][15] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the methanol arrival volume at ports decreased, and ports significantly reduced inventory. This week's planned arrival volume is similar to last week's. However, due to the widened price difference between ports and inland areas, the arbitrage window has opened, and inland supply through road transportation has increased. With reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm, ports may see inventory accumulation. As of June 20, coastal port methanol inventory was 95.38 tons, down 7.76 tons month - on - month and 16.31 tons year - on - year. Manufacturer inventory decreased, mainly in East, Central, and Southwest China. With the opening of the arbitrage window, manufacturers may continue to reduce inventory, supporting inland prices. As of June 20, manufacturer inventory was 36.74 tons, down 1.18 tons month - on - month and 5.99 tons year - on - year [17][18] 3.5 Cost Side - Last week, methanol prices rebounded significantly, increasing the profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol plants and narrowing the losses of southwest natural - gas - based plants. Coal prices slightly increased last week, with a decrease in inventory at northern ports. Market sentiment improved, and the number of inquiries increased. However, downstream users are still observing, and terminal users are only making necessary purchases. Although coal production is expected to increase slightly in June, the growth may be limited due to safety inspections. On the demand side, as it enters the peak electricity - coal consumption season, coal prices have stopped falling, but due to high inventory and the substitution effect of clean energy, the supply - demand situation remains weak, and coal price increases are expected to be limited [20][21] 3.6 Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are strongly fluctuating. Due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, international crude oil prices have risen significantly. Although the current price is in a high - level shock and has not further increased, the main support comes from the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. There are also new positive factors such as the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, there are also negative factors, such as the IEA's significant increase in supply growth expectations and the continued export of Iranian oil. The future trend depends on Iran's response and whether the conflict will expand [23][24]