原油周评：伊以冲突难有降温，油价仍存上行可能

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent oil price may continue to show high - volatility trends under the influence of highly uncertain geopolitical factors, and it is difficult to have an obvious trend. It is recommended to take a bullish approach in operation, but beware of the risk of a rapid short - term correction due to geopolitical cooling [12][66]. Summary by Directory 1. Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price was affected by geopolitical factors and reached new highs since February. It is expected that political factors will remain the core support for the oil price this week, with some upward potential. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish approach for the domestic energy sector, but beware of short - term rapid oil price corrections due to geopolitical cooling [12]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the overall oil price was strong, mainly affected by the Iran - Israel conflict in the Middle East. Although the market briefly declined due to the "US - Iran call" news over the weekend, subsequent events such as the US joining the action against Iran and Iran's tough stance boosted the oil price again [18]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Macro - aspects - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.50% in the June meeting, which was in line with market expectations. The semi - annual monetary policy report also reiterated "wait - and - see before cutting interest rates", suppressing the short - term interest rate cut expectations [23]. - There is uncertainty about the successor to the Fed Chairman. Trump's criticism of Powell may affect subsequent Fed decisions and market expectations [26]. - The Iran - Israel conflict continued to escalate last week. Israel aimed to "eliminate Khamenei", and Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US also launched attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, making it difficult for the conflict to cool down in the short term and keeping the oil price volatile [30]. 3.2 Supply - aspects - In May, OPEC achieved a production increase of 183,000 barrels per day, and OPEC + increased production by 180,000 barrels per day in total [33]. - Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. If the war escalates, it may cut off oil transportation through the strait, affecting about 22 million barrels of daily global oil transportation, which would impact the global supply - demand pattern [34]. - Saudi Arabia's oil production increased, while Iraq compensated for production cuts, and the US production remained stable [33][41][44]. 3.3 Demand - aspects - There is a slight improvement in summer demand expectations, but the manufacturing industries in China and the US continue to contract. However, the production of refined oil products continues to pick up [47][50][56]. 3.4 Inventory - aspects - US crude oil inventories from June 5 - 13 showed a significant decline, with API inventories dropping by 10.133 million barrels and EIA inventories dropping by 11.473 million barrels, which may support the WTI price [58]. - US refined oil inventories continued to accumulate. Gasoline and refined oil inventories increased last week, which may lead to a weakening of gasoline and diesel prices and a potential narrowing of the crack spread [61]. 4. Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the oil price was strong, though the weekly gain was limited over the weekend. The supply - side uncertainty in the commodity attribute, the Fed's interest rate decision in the financial attribute, and the high uncertainty of the Iran - Israel conflict in the political attribute all affect the oil price. Overall, the oil price may be highly volatile, and a bullish approach is recommended with caution for short - term corrections [66].