瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250623

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The Shanghai copper fundamentals may be in a weak supply - demand situation. The options market sentiment is bullish with a slightly rising implied volatility. It is recommended to conduct light - position range trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 78,290 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,633 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 157,429 lots, down 9,453 lots. The LME copper inventory is 99,200 tons, down 4,125 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 100,814 tons, down 1,129 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,325 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the Yangshan copper average premium is 41.5 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 35 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi and Yunnan are 68,680 yuan/metal ton and 69,380 yuan/metal ton respectively, both down 70 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 125.4 million tons, unchanged. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The prices of 1 bright copper wire and 2 copper in Shanghai are down 100 yuan/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 209.6 million tons, up 1.5 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan. The real estate development investment is 3,623.384 billion yuan, up 850.427 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of Shanghai copper are 8.61% and 9.18% respectively, up 0.08% and 0.02%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 11.6%, up 0.0023%, and the at - the - money option purchase - put ratio is 1.04, down 0.0538 [2] 3.7 Industry News - China's macro - policies are precisely regulated, and the economy shows strong resilience. The GDP growth target of over 5% in the first half of 2025 is almost certain, and the Q2 growth rate may reach about 5.3%. The Fed's monetary policy report shows inflation is "slightly high" and the job market is "in good condition". Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. China's central bank keeps the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged [2]