苹果产业日报-20250623

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The apple market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Although the current low inventory supports prices, the increasing competition and substitution from other fruits, along with a potential increase in farmers' willingness to sell, put pressure on apple prices. Continued attention should be paid to bagging conditions [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 7,643 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan; the closing price of the October contract is also 7,643 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 90,058 lots, down 17,872 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 2,486 lots, down 3,474 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4.1 yuan/jin, that in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4.5 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin, and in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70) is 4.2 yuan/jin, with no change in all cases [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple orchard area is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, down 19.58 thousand hectares, and the national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, up 168.34 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.59 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.56 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 116.49 million tons, down 10.97 million tons. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.16, down 0.01, and in Shaanxi is 0.08, down 0.01. The monthly apple export volume is 50,000 tons, down 20,000 tons, and the export value is 51.525 million US dollars, down 25.529 million US dollars. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 22,010.50171064370.17 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.9 yuan/jin, with no change [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.5 yuan/kg, up 0.38 yuan; the wholesale price of pears is 6.75 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan; the wholesale price of bananas is 6.61 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan; the wholesale price of watermelons is 4.11 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan. The average daily early - morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 10.25, up 2.25; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 14.25, up 2.45; and at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 22.25, up 1.45 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 15.72%, up 0.24%, and that of at - the - money put options is 15.71%, up 0.23% [2] 3.7 Industry News - On June 23, 2025, the trading atmosphere in apple - producing areas improved, with more inquiring and inspecting merchants, but most had a wait - and - see and price - pressing attitude. Cold - storage shipments were mainly from merchants' own packaged goods. The prices of high - quality and early - season apples were stable, while buyers significantly pressured the prices of low - quality and end - season apples. In the new - season apple aspect, the bagging work in the producing areas is ending, and the production situation is becoming clear. The apple production in Shaanxi's main producing areas is expected to decrease by 5% - 10% compared to the same period last year [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - As of June 18, 2025, the national main - producing areas' apple cold - storage inventory was 116.49 million tons, down 10.97 million tons from last week. The shipment speed was basically the same as last week but slower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 16.43%, down 0.86% from last week, and the de - stocking speed slowed down. Shandong is currently in the busy farming season, with light overall trading. The storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi was 8.9%, down 0.76% from last week, and the shipment was slightly slower than last week [2]