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瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250623
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-23 10:30
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate still maintain a situation of excessive supply and weak demand, with industrial inventories at a high level. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 59,120 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 26,997 hands, up 8,898 hands; the position of the main contract is 356,954 hands, up 2,607 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 740 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 27,793 hands/ton, down 2,164 hands [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 59,950 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 58,350 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 830 yuan/ton, down 670 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 689 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 6,465 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,548 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 47%, down 6%. The monthly output of power batteries is 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The prices of some cathode materials such as ternary materials and manganese - acid lithium remain unchanged. The operating rates of ternary cathode materials and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials have increased by 2%. The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,270,000, up 19,000; the monthly sales are 1,307,000, up 81,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 43.99%, up 1.25; the monthly export volume is 212,000, up 12,000 [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position is 123,489, up 5,969; the total put position is 46,083, up 4,926; the put - call ratio of total positions is 37.32%, up 2.2962%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.22%, up 0.0201% [2] Industry News - Three international standards in the field of power energy storage led by China have been released and implemented. The "2025 Automobile Industry Statistics Work Conference" was held in Xi'an. The automobile industry shows a stable and positive development trend, and new energy vehicles continue to grow rapidly [2] Technical Analysis - On the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the green bars are slightly converging [2]